Quick-fire Euro 2008 semifinal outlooks. (Be sure to visit Deadspin tomorrow for some other perspectives.)
Germany v. Turkey (Wednesday):
On paper, does Turkey have any chance in this game? With all the injuries and suspensions, will Fatih Terim even be able to field a team? Suppose Turkey made it into this game in normal fashion, no crazy, all-time comebacks, would there be one rational person aside from Mehmet Okur who'd pick the Turks?
Germany, unlike say a Spain, is used to playing the favorite and the pressure of winning this game shouldn't be an issue. We've already seen the Germans do just enough in a can't-lose match against Austria.
If Turkey is somehow able to withstand 90 or 120 minutes of German pressure without conceding it would be a minor miracle. Whether it come on a set play, a counter attack, a 15-pass build-up, Germany is going to find a way to score -- probably more than once. Germany saw it's 2-0, then 3-1 lead against Portugal melt away, and a day later they certainly watched what happens when Turkey even has seconds left of life. Without using WWII references, Germany is going to pound away and not let off the gas pedal until the final whistle.
People like to get wrapped up in up-lifting sports stories like the Turkish run at the Euro. Unfortunately for Turkey, Kurt Russell, Emilio Estevez, Dennis Quaid, Denzel Washington, etc. aren't around. Terim's powers of inspiration might be unparalleled, but it's not going to be enough against a class team that's due to win it's first major trophy in 12 years. There's an outside chance this could get very ugly. ... Germany 4, Turkey 1
Spain v. Russia (Thursday):
Be careful. Be very careful. Everyone in the footballing world is enraptured with Guus Hiddink's Russia after its 3-1 win over the Dutch Saturday. Andrei Arshavin is the next Pele/Ronaldo/Maradonna, etc.
Pundits can dismiss Spain's 4-1 win in the Group Stage, too. Yes, Russia did hit the post a few times.
What might get forgotten is that, though the Russian Premier League is a sleeping giant, the Spanish players are to a man, better than Russia's. Not by a lot, but enough. Maybe the Anglo-centric view most Americans have for world soccer can tend to overrate then underrate and then overrate once again, but think, is anyone on Russia better than Fro Torres or Cesc Fabregas?
Here's the other thing, we saw Spain struggle to score against Italy. Don't forget, Italy was playing nine or 10 behind the ball at all times and had Gigi Buffon between the sticks. Barring a surprise from Hiddink, Russia isn't going to bunker down for a 1-0/0-0 match. To have any chance Hiddink will have to turn Arshavin and Roman Pavlyuchenko loose up front, and allow Yuri Zhirkov to get forward with crosses from the left.
If Russia plays this way it plays right into Spain's hands and opens up lanes for Torres, Xavi, Iniesta, Cesc and Villa. Hiddink could hunker down and try to let Arshavin create a moment of brilliance on the counter, but he's smart enough to know this is Russia's (and his) chance for sporting immortality and the way to do that is to play football, even if it allows Spain a chance. ... Spain 2, Russia 1
Germany v. Turkey (Wednesday):
On paper, does Turkey have any chance in this game? With all the injuries and suspensions, will Fatih Terim even be able to field a team? Suppose Turkey made it into this game in normal fashion, no crazy, all-time comebacks, would there be one rational person aside from Mehmet Okur who'd pick the Turks?
Germany, unlike say a Spain, is used to playing the favorite and the pressure of winning this game shouldn't be an issue. We've already seen the Germans do just enough in a can't-lose match against Austria.
If Turkey is somehow able to withstand 90 or 120 minutes of German pressure without conceding it would be a minor miracle. Whether it come on a set play, a counter attack, a 15-pass build-up, Germany is going to find a way to score -- probably more than once. Germany saw it's 2-0, then 3-1 lead against Portugal melt away, and a day later they certainly watched what happens when Turkey even has seconds left of life. Without using WWII references, Germany is going to pound away and not let off the gas pedal until the final whistle.
People like to get wrapped up in up-lifting sports stories like the Turkish run at the Euro. Unfortunately for Turkey, Kurt Russell, Emilio Estevez, Dennis Quaid, Denzel Washington, etc. aren't around. Terim's powers of inspiration might be unparalleled, but it's not going to be enough against a class team that's due to win it's first major trophy in 12 years. There's an outside chance this could get very ugly. ... Germany 4, Turkey 1
Spain v. Russia (Thursday):
Be careful. Be very careful. Everyone in the footballing world is enraptured with Guus Hiddink's Russia after its 3-1 win over the Dutch Saturday. Andrei Arshavin is the next Pele/Ronaldo/Maradonna, etc.
Pundits can dismiss Spain's 4-1 win in the Group Stage, too. Yes, Russia did hit the post a few times.
What might get forgotten is that, though the Russian Premier League is a sleeping giant, the Spanish players are to a man, better than Russia's. Not by a lot, but enough. Maybe the Anglo-centric view most Americans have for world soccer can tend to overrate then underrate and then overrate once again, but think, is anyone on Russia better than Fro Torres or Cesc Fabregas?
Here's the other thing, we saw Spain struggle to score against Italy. Don't forget, Italy was playing nine or 10 behind the ball at all times and had Gigi Buffon between the sticks. Barring a surprise from Hiddink, Russia isn't going to bunker down for a 1-0/0-0 match. To have any chance Hiddink will have to turn Arshavin and Roman Pavlyuchenko loose up front, and allow Yuri Zhirkov to get forward with crosses from the left.
If Russia plays this way it plays right into Spain's hands and opens up lanes for Torres, Xavi, Iniesta, Cesc and Villa. Hiddink could hunker down and try to let Arshavin create a moment of brilliance on the counter, but he's smart enough to know this is Russia's (and his) chance for sporting immortality and the way to do that is to play football, even if it allows Spain a chance. ... Spain 2, Russia 1
eastern europe is where German offensives go to die, Spain to choke and Russia to lift the title.
Zhirkov is out on yellows
also when you make comments about individual performers you ignore flukes like Greece 04, and as Fabregas can't even get in the Spanish's first 11 I don't think this is a great comparison, although maybe that is your point. Torres also wasn't deemed better than Danny Guiza at the end of the game, though Aragones suffers from senility, I think your reducing this game too much to the individual.
Forget Guus Hiddink for US national team coach, can we get Fatih Terim? What he's done with that squad is amazing. They had barely enough players to play against Germany and were missing most of their best players yet were still able to score two goals against the Germans. If the US had half the belief of the Turks it would be amazing.
It's a shame that the Turks are out but that was quite a winner scored by Lahm.
Zhirkov is certainly not suspended. Russia will be missing Kolodin and the #7 who scored in ET against the Dutch (forget the name). Neither of them are vital pieces.
The name of the game tomorrow will be fitness. If Russia can prevent Spain from controlling possession and run them ragged in the process, they have a very good chance to match the performances in their previous two matches and advance to the finals.