Michael Lewis, I'm waiting.
After reading your story about Shane Battier in the New York Times Magazine this week I want you to apply the 'Moneyball' philosophy to the world's game, soccer. (Quick note, if you haven't read 'The Blind Side' stop everything and find a copy, post haste.)
It could even be pretty easy and here's your starting point. Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane is purported to be a Tottenham fan and enlisted by San Jose Earthquakes management (which also owns the A's) to devise some statistical analysis to soccer.
A couple of issues ago 'FourFourTwo' ran a feature about the growing trend of stats applied to club soccer. It wasn't that good a read, so I won't link to it.
I'd be fascinated to see what a writer like Lewis or a mind like Beane would be able to devise, because it would almost seem counter productive. Then again, the nitty gritty of all this analysis all boils down to player contracts and value, which is almost a non-issue in European soccer since there aren't salary caps, despite the urging of UEFA president Michel Platini.
At it's core, are there two more opposite sports than soccer and baseball?
Baseball, for better or worse, is consumed by statistics. It's how we can compare players that suited up 70 years apart like Paul Molitor and Eddie Collins (each hit over .300 with 3,000 hits and 500 stolen bases, only Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner have also done that statical anomaly.)
Stats mean everything and nothing in baseball at the same time. Yet with the way owners and agents haggle over OPS numbers in order to save or gain that extra $100,000 it means a lot, even if the players themselves have no clue what's going on behind the bean counters laptops.
In soccer, how many stats can even be tracked? Goals, yes. Assists seem rather subjective, right? Goals allowed and clean sheets mean something, but not necessarily how good a goalie is since there are so many other factors.
When you boil it down, though, in a given baseball play only two things can happen -- either an out is recorded, or it's not. A million variables of that equation can happen, but there are only two end results.
Since soccer isn't like baseball, with it's start/stop set up, there are zillions of things that can happen when the whistle is blown. The end of result is less clear, since the game continues to flow.
Coming up with numbers in soccer, too, doesn't tell the whole story. Sure you can create stuff like how many times a player makes a successful pass or gives the ball away. These mean something, but like ball possession, not a whole lot unless your team wins.
A statistican can point to all the numbers that prove why Manchester United won the Premier League last season. What those numbers won't show are things like Owen Hargreaves scoring on an insane free kick to win a game, or an opposing player making a clumsy tackle leading to a penalty kick.
A good method to apply to soccer would be some sort of VORP (value over replacement player) stat. Even then, this would be skewed. Plunk any League Two punter down in lineup alongside Cristiano Ronaldo and he's due to rate out well.
That's probably the big thing, in soccer the 10 other players on the field directly effect a player you're trying to rate. With baseball, when the batter swings, where and what his other teammates are doing doesn't make a difference.
What the Lewis article about Shane Battier focuses on is the hidden, lesser known grinders that actually help teams win and how to put a value on that. As we've seen in soccer, yes, the blue collar roll players matter, but nine times out of 10 you're going to win with the best players on the pitch. There's no way to find a mechanical system to put a value on the true magicians of the game like Ronaldo, Messi, etc.
Baseball is a lot like math.
Soccer is more like art.
In math everything adds up, in art many times there isn't a right or wrong answer. Well, unless you're Pam Beesley's ex-fiancee Roy, because your art was the prettiest of all the other art.
Saturday
* Aston Villa v. Chelsea -- (Live, Setanta, 7:45) Goedemorgen Premier League Guus Hiddink. I feel like Jemaine on the latest 'Flight of the Conchords' regarding the Aussie chick -- conflicted. I can't stand Chelsea, but I like Guus. Can't decide. Brian aneurysm. In any event, this is a massive, underline massive match with yooooge ramifications. If Villa take the three points they'll open a five-point gap on Chelsea and really put itself in the drivers seat for a Champions League spot. In the past Villa has played reasonably well against Chelsea, too, thanks to its speed. Chelsea Saturday is an absolute x-factor. Will the veterans come out wanting to play? What kind of lineup will Hiddink roll with? There's no way to know. I'd like to say Brad Freidel & Co. take the win, but something tells me Frank Lampard will get a trademark Keith Hernandez magic-loogie goal in the 80+ minute to undue a fine effort from Martin O'Neill's men. ... Villa 1, Chelsea 1
* Arsenal v. Sunderland -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) Eduardo had his leg reattached ... of course then he gets hurt. Andrei Arshavin has been freed from the siege of Leningrad. Cesc Fabregas might be back soon. Excuses are running out for Arsenal. The Gunners have to win this one right? Of course, they are close to Sunderland (14 points) than first place Manchester United (15). Sunderland has shown a lot of spunk and won't back down easily. ... Arsenal 2, Sunderland 1
* Bolton v. West Ham -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Bolton best take all the points here since it's hard to figure West Ham is going to be that pumped up for it. ... Bolton 2, West Ham 0
* Middlesbrough v. Wigan -- Simply, this is a must win for Middlesbrough if it wants to stick around to spin the wheel again. It's still pretty crowded at the bottom, but if 'Boro continue to post zeros, that gap will increase quickly. With only 13 games remaning, it's getting late quickly at the Riverside. Middlesbrough has scored the least goals in the league (18) since record-signing Afonso Alves -- who may have scored that many goals in one game against Heracles Almelo -- needs to step up and deliver because there's nobody else left. I'll go with desperation. ... Boro 1, Wigan 0
* Stoke City v. Portsmouth -- Just when you think Pompey is dead, they beat Man City last week in the weather-postponed make up. There are just too many quality professional at the club to let it go down ... this year at least. (Of course, that's been said before.) Stoke? What a vanilla mix of players aside from rubber-armed Rory Delap. The Potters will probably go down, but at least it didn't spend too much on players so it'll likely remain on sound fiscal grounds, which is accomplishment these days. The only hope around the Brittania Stadium is other than Villa and Arsenal, Stoke has a pretty manageable final 12 matches. ... Stoke 0, Portsmouth 0
* Manchester United v. Blackburn Rovers -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) Unless my old pal Morten Gamst Pedersen decides to spin the frozen donkey wheel and time flash back to 2005, Blackburn probably doesn't have much of a chance, especially with Man Utd-pests David Bentley and Freidel no longer around. Blackburn's only hope is if Sir Alex Ferguson decides to rest some bodies ahead of Tuesday's mega-clash with Inter Milan. United is due a hiccup, but not here even with extended Johnny Evans sightings. Maybe the only question is if Blackburn even musters a shot at the Wall of Van Dar Saar. (Watch out, Patrice Evra is back, too.) ... Manchester United 4, Blackburn 0
Sunday
* Fulham v. West Brom -- (Live, Setanta, 8:30 a.m.) Fulham's blue collar workers will punch the clock and net the win. Boring, but boring is all right these days, too. ... Fulham 1, West Brom 0
* Liverpool v. Manchester City -- (Live, FSC, 11 a.m.) My goodness...can each team battle for most backroom drama ahead of the game and award a point for it? If this were a movie (or the WWF), a City rep should meet Fernando Torres in the parking lot with a brief case full of gold bullion and get him to jump ship. But that's neither here nor there. It'll be fun to see what kind of lineup Raffer throws out there with only a few days before the first leg against Real Madrid. Will it be names out of a hat? The dartboard? Manatees pushing balls into a tank? Everything is in play. Manchester City are the picture of inconsistency and blew a 2-0 first half lead to Liverpool in the first encounter this season at Eastlands, a match I can't remember at all. Dirty Dirk Kuyt apparently had the 90th minute winner, because Goonies never say die. ... Liverpool 2, Manchester City 1
* Newcastle United v. Everton -- So now Tim Cahill is organizing some kind of charity event to benefit the Australian people ravaged by wild fires. My man-crush is in full effect. There's no point even hiding it any more. ... Newcastle 1, Everton 2
Monday
* Hull City v. Tottenham -- (Live, Setanta, 2:45 p.m.) Getting back to the stat decision, how would you like to be Harry Redknapp? You have a team of 20+, very quality players. None of them are exactly superstars, but all pretty good. How do you juggle it each week? Example, when and where do you play Luka Modric? In theory these are good questions or problems to have, but not when you're one of the richest clubs in the world sitting two points above the relegation zone with 13 matches left. My bets are 'Arry figures it out. ... Hull City 0, Spurs 1
Last round: 6-5
Season: 112-133
After reading your story about Shane Battier in the New York Times Magazine this week I want you to apply the 'Moneyball' philosophy to the world's game, soccer. (Quick note, if you haven't read 'The Blind Side' stop everything and find a copy, post haste.)
It could even be pretty easy and here's your starting point. Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane is purported to be a Tottenham fan and enlisted by San Jose Earthquakes management (which also owns the A's) to devise some statistical analysis to soccer.
A couple of issues ago 'FourFourTwo' ran a feature about the growing trend of stats applied to club soccer. It wasn't that good a read, so I won't link to it.
I'd be fascinated to see what a writer like Lewis or a mind like Beane would be able to devise, because it would almost seem counter productive. Then again, the nitty gritty of all this analysis all boils down to player contracts and value, which is almost a non-issue in European soccer since there aren't salary caps, despite the urging of UEFA president Michel Platini.
At it's core, are there two more opposite sports than soccer and baseball?
Baseball, for better or worse, is consumed by statistics. It's how we can compare players that suited up 70 years apart like Paul Molitor and Eddie Collins (each hit over .300 with 3,000 hits and 500 stolen bases, only Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner have also done that statical anomaly.)
Stats mean everything and nothing in baseball at the same time. Yet with the way owners and agents haggle over OPS numbers in order to save or gain that extra $100,000 it means a lot, even if the players themselves have no clue what's going on behind the bean counters laptops.
In soccer, how many stats can even be tracked? Goals, yes. Assists seem rather subjective, right? Goals allowed and clean sheets mean something, but not necessarily how good a goalie is since there are so many other factors.
When you boil it down, though, in a given baseball play only two things can happen -- either an out is recorded, or it's not. A million variables of that equation can happen, but there are only two end results.
Since soccer isn't like baseball, with it's start/stop set up, there are zillions of things that can happen when the whistle is blown. The end of result is less clear, since the game continues to flow.
Coming up with numbers in soccer, too, doesn't tell the whole story. Sure you can create stuff like how many times a player makes a successful pass or gives the ball away. These mean something, but like ball possession, not a whole lot unless your team wins.
A statistican can point to all the numbers that prove why Manchester United won the Premier League last season. What those numbers won't show are things like Owen Hargreaves scoring on an insane free kick to win a game, or an opposing player making a clumsy tackle leading to a penalty kick.
A good method to apply to soccer would be some sort of VORP (value over replacement player) stat. Even then, this would be skewed. Plunk any League Two punter down in lineup alongside Cristiano Ronaldo and he's due to rate out well.
That's probably the big thing, in soccer the 10 other players on the field directly effect a player you're trying to rate. With baseball, when the batter swings, where and what his other teammates are doing doesn't make a difference.
What the Lewis article about Shane Battier focuses on is the hidden, lesser known grinders that actually help teams win and how to put a value on that. As we've seen in soccer, yes, the blue collar roll players matter, but nine times out of 10 you're going to win with the best players on the pitch. There's no way to find a mechanical system to put a value on the true magicians of the game like Ronaldo, Messi, etc.
Baseball is a lot like math.
Soccer is more like art.
In math everything adds up, in art many times there isn't a right or wrong answer. Well, unless you're Pam Beesley's ex-fiancee Roy, because your art was the prettiest of all the other art.
Saturday
* Aston Villa v. Chelsea -- (Live, Setanta, 7:45) Goedemorgen Premier League Guus Hiddink. I feel like Jemaine on the latest 'Flight of the Conchords' regarding the Aussie chick -- conflicted. I can't stand Chelsea, but I like Guus. Can't decide. Brian aneurysm. In any event, this is a massive, underline massive match with yooooge ramifications. If Villa take the three points they'll open a five-point gap on Chelsea and really put itself in the drivers seat for a Champions League spot. In the past Villa has played reasonably well against Chelsea, too, thanks to its speed. Chelsea Saturday is an absolute x-factor. Will the veterans come out wanting to play? What kind of lineup will Hiddink roll with? There's no way to know. I'd like to say Brad Freidel & Co. take the win, but something tells me Frank Lampard will get a trademark Keith Hernandez magic-loogie goal in the 80+ minute to undue a fine effort from Martin O'Neill's men. ... Villa 1, Chelsea 1
* Arsenal v. Sunderland -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) Eduardo had his leg reattached ... of course then he gets hurt. Andrei Arshavin has been freed from the siege of Leningrad. Cesc Fabregas might be back soon. Excuses are running out for Arsenal. The Gunners have to win this one right? Of course, they are close to Sunderland (14 points) than first place Manchester United (15). Sunderland has shown a lot of spunk and won't back down easily. ... Arsenal 2, Sunderland 1
* Bolton v. West Ham -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Bolton best take all the points here since it's hard to figure West Ham is going to be that pumped up for it. ... Bolton 2, West Ham 0
* Middlesbrough v. Wigan -- Simply, this is a must win for Middlesbrough if it wants to stick around to spin the wheel again. It's still pretty crowded at the bottom, but if 'Boro continue to post zeros, that gap will increase quickly. With only 13 games remaning, it's getting late quickly at the Riverside. Middlesbrough has scored the least goals in the league (18) since record-signing Afonso Alves -- who may have scored that many goals in one game against Heracles Almelo -- needs to step up and deliver because there's nobody else left. I'll go with desperation. ... Boro 1, Wigan 0
* Stoke City v. Portsmouth -- Just when you think Pompey is dead, they beat Man City last week in the weather-postponed make up. There are just too many quality professional at the club to let it go down ... this year at least. (Of course, that's been said before.) Stoke? What a vanilla mix of players aside from rubber-armed Rory Delap. The Potters will probably go down, but at least it didn't spend too much on players so it'll likely remain on sound fiscal grounds, which is accomplishment these days. The only hope around the Brittania Stadium is other than Villa and Arsenal, Stoke has a pretty manageable final 12 matches. ... Stoke 0, Portsmouth 0
* Manchester United v. Blackburn Rovers -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) Unless my old pal Morten Gamst Pedersen decides to spin the frozen donkey wheel and time flash back to 2005, Blackburn probably doesn't have much of a chance, especially with Man Utd-pests David Bentley and Freidel no longer around. Blackburn's only hope is if Sir Alex Ferguson decides to rest some bodies ahead of Tuesday's mega-clash with Inter Milan. United is due a hiccup, but not here even with extended Johnny Evans sightings. Maybe the only question is if Blackburn even musters a shot at the Wall of Van Dar Saar. (Watch out, Patrice Evra is back, too.) ... Manchester United 4, Blackburn 0
Sunday
* Fulham v. West Brom -- (Live, Setanta, 8:30 a.m.) Fulham's blue collar workers will punch the clock and net the win. Boring, but boring is all right these days, too. ... Fulham 1, West Brom 0
* Liverpool v. Manchester City -- (Live, FSC, 11 a.m.) My goodness...can each team battle for most backroom drama ahead of the game and award a point for it? If this were a movie (or the WWF), a City rep should meet Fernando Torres in the parking lot with a brief case full of gold bullion and get him to jump ship. But that's neither here nor there. It'll be fun to see what kind of lineup Raffer throws out there with only a few days before the first leg against Real Madrid. Will it be names out of a hat? The dartboard? Manatees pushing balls into a tank? Everything is in play. Manchester City are the picture of inconsistency and blew a 2-0 first half lead to Liverpool in the first encounter this season at Eastlands, a match I can't remember at all. Dirty Dirk Kuyt apparently had the 90th minute winner, because Goonies never say die. ... Liverpool 2, Manchester City 1
* Newcastle United v. Everton -- So now Tim Cahill is organizing some kind of charity event to benefit the Australian people ravaged by wild fires. My man-crush is in full effect. There's no point even hiding it any more. ... Newcastle 1, Everton 2
Monday
* Hull City v. Tottenham -- (Live, Setanta, 2:45 p.m.) Getting back to the stat decision, how would you like to be Harry Redknapp? You have a team of 20+, very quality players. None of them are exactly superstars, but all pretty good. How do you juggle it each week? Example, when and where do you play Luka Modric? In theory these are good questions or problems to have, but not when you're one of the richest clubs in the world sitting two points above the relegation zone with 13 matches left. My bets are 'Arry figures it out. ... Hull City 0, Spurs 1
Last round: 6-5
Season: 112-133
Labels: Prem Picks, Premier League, Soccer
How often do you watch a match and see unforced errors turn into a counter-attack for the opposition?
I think it would be interesting to present a statistical analysis of how likely a player is to retain (or continue) possession once a ball is played to him.
Since you could argue (successfully, I think) that nothing is more important than possession, this would be statistically relevant to building a successful team.
You would definitely have to take into account variances; the quality of the pass would have to be factored in, as would the position you play - but I still think it would be possible. Knowing which players are more likely to lost possession would certainly give a GM an advantage.
Of course, this type of analysis is likely already being done by clubs.
What Premier League Clubs can Learn from Baseballby The Gaffer on November 17, 2007
By Kent _____
Why don’t football clubs employ baseball models (i.e. sabermetrics) for evaluating talent? As a football and baseball junkie, I’m more than aware of the fact that both sports are entirely different. But, it seems to me that baseball is on to something when clubs like the A’s and Twins (and many others) are able to evaluate talent aside from “the name” of a player and able to save marginal revenue by signing Player X (70% as good as Player Y, 1/25th the price) over Player Y (Better than Player X to be sure, but W-A-Y more expensive)…I could give you scores of examples, but hope that you see where I’m going.
I’ve been wondering lately, why more football clubs don’t employ methods a la Arsenal or Manchester United or, better yet, Portsmouth or Blackburn? Or, do they and I’m not aware of it? No, not buying the highest priced youngsters on the market, but buying reasonably priced youngsters on the market.
Of course there are “can’t miss” players like Ronaldo or Essien that always fall to the clubs with money. But, most clubs in Europe can’t afford those players. That they try to compete with the signings of the biggest clubs in Europe is just stupid; it’s also economically impossible. Think Sevilla or Villarreal try to compete with Real Franco or Barcelona with money? Hell no, they find inequalities in the system and untapped resources (i.e. failed Premiership players). So, where in the hell are the majority of Premiership clubs with this approach?
This to me seems oh-so-obvious, especially when one considers the fact that football has a player pool massively larger than baseball and spread throughout the globe. I’m mean all the freaking money in England (or Europe) right now and why aren’t more teams scouting Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Africa, or Asia for players as good as Lee Bowyer or Pick-Your-Fulham-Or-Boro-Player for less money and more upside?
I’m a West Ham fan. For the life of me I can’t figure out why West Ham (i.e. a club with status for its football academy) would ever sign players like Dyer, Parker, Solano, Ljungberg, Boa Morte, and Neill. Yeah, these guys are okay, but they’re injury prone and/or old(er) and/or not THAT much better than youthful depth. Hell, I’d take youthful depth from Championship sides and an Anderson or Babel over the lot that I just gave you. I mean, is a squad assembled at Portsmouth or Blackburn THAT difficult to figure out? No, not it’s not. And I tell you what, when an American fan watching from afar and reading his World-Soccer-Daily-inspired Four Four Two can see and predict teams’ stupid signings…well…that’s saying something.
It seems to me that a hell of a void is out there when it comes to assessing value for production and most Premiership sides are not doing a very good job of using their sizeable resources to properly assemble a competitive side.
As you can see, I wrote this in 2007, thinking the same thing; EPL Talk posted it. Hell, it was just an off-the-cuff email. Had I known that it was going to be posted, I would have cleaned it up a whole lot more. In any case, I think the game is ripe (especially due to its depth around the globe) for evaluating talent in ways to maximize players' abilities and prices.
And before people start saying that stats don't translate from baseball to futbol, remember that Moneyball isn't just about stats, it's about finding untapped talent at value, etc, etc. Nonetheless, I'd assume that smart clubs are already doing this, especially the mid-table types trying to stay up vs. the Man Uniteds of the world.
Great website by the way.
Kent
I'd like to see Moneyball applied to Free kicks and PKs. Sure, Beckham's got some great highlights of free kick goals but is he like 20 for 800 lifetime? It would be interesting to see who is the most dangerous kick taker in the EPL as far as goals/kicks and even what area on the field they score them from. Teams could even chart where certain people like to aim so keepers could cheat that way.
It could be just like Field Goal kickers in the NFL (ex. Ronaldo is 3 for 10 from this distance)
Intriguing. I have decided that this is the reason that (real) football with never catch on in the USofA...it just isn't quantifiable. Quantification is what draws USofA fans to their sports of choice, hoops, baseball, and American football. Numbers for everything, everything counted. Hockey is a form of football in that it really can't be effectively quantified beyond goals and shut-outs. But, it attracts the American football fan who likes to see contact while not necessarily feeling it.
The thing with football is that when you see a good play it has some Wow!! factor to it, in USofA sports, it's just another number--except maybe when LeBron dunks by throwing the ball through the hoop or when Magic made a "no-look how'd he see that guy" pass. The other thing is that you can look at a guy play for half of a game and say "That guy has IT," whatever IT is. For example, Ronaldo or Ronaldinho. Or, on a cloudy day in Glasgow you can step out of the train station into George Square and look across the square at the block-long picture of Rooney kicking at a non-pictured ball and think "That guy must have IT and I'm going to have to keep my eye on him."