"What the fuck happened to our Trailer Park." -- Ricky, 'Trailer Park Boys'
Look, the better pop culture lead-in for today's Premier League pick scenario would have been referencing the classic 'Seinfeld' episode where George made the bold decision to so everything to the opposite of his natural inclination. (Look, I just want to pimp 'Trailer Park Boys' one last time before Christmas.)
Nothing is making a lick of sense.
And our one Desmond Hume-approved constant -- Chelsea is better than everybody else -- is starting to show a couple nose bleeds. (2-1 at home to last-place Portsmouth?!?)
Last weekend the craziness manifested itself in totality.
During the crammed-up midweek fixtures, it was more of the same.
What planet are we living on when Aston Villa sells off its best player -- Gareth Barry -- and suddenly becomes the most consistent team in the league? (English version of the Ewing Theory?)
Are we ready to live in a world where a respected team -- Everton -- is looking toward Landon Donovan -- LANDON DONOVAN -- (emphasis) as short-term salvation?
How is it possible arguably the biggest team in the world -- Manchester United -- can't find four healthy and competent defenders on a week-in, week-out basis?
Where are we where mighty Arsenal is struggling, albeit away, to last season's promotion playoffs winners, Burnley?
How did Birmingham City find the secret tonic to move above the relegation zone and ahead of Liverpool in the table?
All these questions yield few answers.
Here are a couple of my thoroughly non-scientific suggestions.
1. The gap between the haves and have nots has narrowed, at least on the field. (Seems unlikely. Would anyone on Wolves start for a 'Big Four' club? Or even make the bench?)
2. The mid-table teams have gotten a little smarter in their approach. (Getting warmer, though his was inevitable once Newcastle United was relegated, sorry Brad.)
3. Fixture overload. (In the words of Col. Hans Landa, "That's a bingo!")
Is an over-crowded soccer calendar to blame for the wild and rampant unpredictability of the once rather staid Premier League?
Yes and no. This isn't some sort of geometric proof where you can prove that A equals B. Most of this evidence is of the empirical form from a doofus watching games on his living room coach an ocean away.
That said, look at Wednesday's 1-1 draw between Arsenal and Burnley at Turf Moor.
If you're Burnley, this is the only match on the agenda. Manager Owen Coyle isn't worrying about a European competition. He hasn't lost players to injury while on international break. Coyle has a mountain of footage of Arsenal from the season to show his team and breakdown. He can devise a fairly simple and straightforward gameplan.
Plus, on a more esoteric level, the onus clearly falls on Arsenal before the opening whistle even blew. The Gunners were expected to stroll into the tiny stadium and walk off with three points.
To me, this is a huge factor as we get closer to next June's World Cup in South Africa. The tournament prohibitive favorites -- Germany, Brazil, Italy, Spain, etc. -- are all expected (at least from the media/fans) to step on the field and immediately come away winners. The ball is in their proverbial court. Fans want it to be 3-0 within 10 minutes, so they can stop working on their ulcers.
We know this doesn't happen all too often. The longer the underdog sticks around, the tighter the favorite gets. At this point in the 60+ minute all it takes is one bounce of the ball or bad foul conceded and you have on upset on your hands.
If anything, this is a reason to think the U.S. could beat England assuming the scoreline remains 0-0 for a protracted amount of time.
I'm not sure how well this idea applies to the week-in, week-out drudgery of an actual league. It certainly must wear on a player's mental resolve to think they're expected to instantly win every game with ease.
But anyway, back to the Burnley example.
In theory the Clarets are at a disadvantage since they have a smaller team and if a player gets injured for a long spell, they have no replacement.
At the same time, most of the players in the squad are only playing that one match per week. They're keeping the miles on the odometer low. Maybe they're not as skillful or fast as the Ferraris employed by Arsenal, yet they're reliable like a Camry and clearly don't need as much time in the garage for tuneups. (Plus they're a lot safer in cold weather.)
As I've written about at length, look at Liverpool's reliance on Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard. How much longer can Gerrard keep it up. From the 2000/01 through 2008/09 seasons he averaged a stunning 50.3 matches for the Reds. Factor in England duty and all the travel it entails and its a marvel he's still able to do what he does.
Can Frank Lampard, Michael Ballack, Michael Essien and Didier Drogba run forever for Chelsea?
We saw Cesc Fabregas limp off for Arsenal vs. Burnley. Can the Spanish midfield ace afford the proper time to heal his injured hamstring? Or he forgo the long-term issues for a short term fix as Arsenal still harbors faint hopes of winning the league. Arsenal is using the term "small tear" to describe the injury. From a layman's standpoint, hamstring injuries can hamper baseball players for months, and a soccer player can recover and play again in 10 days? Doesn't seem prudent. (Fabregas is the epitome of a modern player, but how long can his career possibly last at a high level when he's spread so thin?)
Manchester United? We've seen it beset by injuries and it wouldn't be a World Cup year without a Wayne Rooney injury crisis, would it? (Please to no think this is a jinx. The tournament would suffer without the England scoring dynamo. It just seems inevitable something along those lines will happen.)
This sort of thing is likely to happen at all the Big Four teams, and even some of the lesser teams like Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, etc. with Europa Cup duty. The core of these teams are playing in multiple concurrent competitions, with international duty thrown in on top. It's not like their coffers are over-flowing with money to purchase a Serbian defender in January. (Consider me worried about the fitness level of Clint Dempsey come June.)
You can easily counter my argument -- nobody is shedding any tears for the big clubs. They are who they are and should have large enough squads to cope. (Yet, should we, in a roundabout way, penalize, or at least put a strain, due to success on the field?)
To quote Lou Brown from "Major League", "Over 162 games even tough guys get sprains, sore arms, muscle pulls..."
The thing about soccer, you really can't play at these high levels nursing an injuy. Yeah, I make fun of guys like Tomas Rosicky and Mikel Arteta for having bones man out of glass, but if you've got an ailment anywhere in your legs, running on it for 90-odd minutes isn't exactly rehabilitation 101.
You could counter the argument that the NFL is much more violent than soccer, which it clearly is. However it's only 16 games, plus playoffs for the entire year. Yeah, running around and getting nicked with a slide tackle isn't exactly Kurt Warner's head getting crunched by a 350-pound lineman, but an injury is an injury. Just ask Dean Ashton.
On top of all this, throw in that the sadists in England what a crowded holiday fixture list with games as little as two days apart -- many played in a steady, cold drizzle -- and it's no surprise the quality of play begins to suffer and the league turns all akimbo. Usually I don't see eye-to-eye with Arsene Wenger, but is he the only man in England smart enough to realize scheduling a team, in this case Arsenal, for three matches in one week isn't the wisest decision? This isn't the NBA were a team can basically mail-in the second night of a back-to-back off, either. Factor in players condition there body for routines, too, and adding a congestion of matches in two weeks doesn't make much sense either.
The alternative is shutting things down for a winter break like the Bundesliga and other leagues, but that would mean losing money and we all know sports, especially the Premier League, is a business first and foremost.
Best hope your club has some 18-year-old lighting it up in the reserves. The novel notion of building from within? That'll be a story for another day.
Saturday:
* Portsmouth v. Liverpool -- (Live, ESPN2, 7:30 a.m.) Consider this the "Schadenfreude Bowl." Slightly more exciting that the St. Petersburg Bowl airing later Saturday on ESPN. ... Portsmouth 1, Liverpool 1
* Aston Villa v. Stoke City -- Man oh man, how did James Milner become so good? Is leaving Newcastle United that much of a boost on a career, like leaving a failing marriage? ... Aston Villa 2, Stoke City 0
* Blackburn v. Tottenham -- When and if Tottenham moves out of White Hart Lane and into a new ground, why not take a page from that Stratosphere Roller Coaster in Las Vegas? Let's figure a way to put a similar ride on the top of the new stadium, that way they can increase the non-matchday revenue streams and non-Spurs fans get experience what its like to follow the team. ... Blackburn 1, Spurs 3
* Fulham v. Manchester United -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) Gun to my head, I have no idea how this match plays out. Fulham are coming off a win in the Europa League and are fairly predictable now that Bobby Zamora has hit a decent run of form. One thing to consider is if Sir Alex sticks with another striker (Berbatov/Owen) to pair with Rooney. He'd gotten away from that for a bit, but reverted to a classic 4-4-2 in the midweek. Probably has to do with the health of Ryan Giggs more than anything else. We can pretty much write in stone Roy Hodgson goes 4-4-2, since he's done that in all 16 matches. Fun Fulham fact, central defenders Breda Hangeland and Aaron Hughes are 16-for-16 in Premier League starts, while outside backs John Paintsil and Paul Konchesky are each 15-for-16. ... Fulham 1, Manchester United 2
* Manchester City v. Sunderland -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Fun fact: Manchester City have the fewest losses in the league, two. City also has the most draws, eight. Hence, an semi-disappointing eighth place position in the table. Sunderland has slipped into the 'blah' zone with its recent string of mediocrity. Take home form here. ... City 2, Sunderland 0
* Arsenal v. Hull City -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) Even without Fabregas Arsenal should win this one, right? Here's a nice nugget, Hull has three points from its last 13 away matches. Maybe we get a heavy does of Aaron Ramsey here. Either that or Wenger does his best to extend his middle finger at the Premier League bosses. ... Arsenal 3, Hull City 0
Sunday:
* Wolves v. Burnley -- (Live, Setanta, 8:30 a.m.) Why the media in England got in a tizzy over Mick McCarthy throwing out a semi-reserve team at Old Trafford is silly. Yeah, you don't want to give away a game, but what chances did he have, really? Why kill you starters in a no-win situation in the crowded fixture time of the season? What are the odds Wolves, even at full strength, hold United to a draw? 20-to-1? That said, he better beat Burnley. ... Wolves 2, Burnley 1
* Everton v. Birmingham City -- Another question, how did Birmingham become the home to the two hottest teams in the league? And since Alex McLeish's "genius" idea to play two strikers on Oct. 24, Birmingham has won six, loss none and drawn twice. Is it really that hard to manage these teams some times? ... Everton 1, Birmingham 1
* West Ham v. Chelsea -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) West Ham, hate to say it, you are LAWST. And with the club's long-standing financial troubles, it's not like they want to fire Gianfranco Zola, OR bring in new faces. As Ron Burgundy would say, "This is grim, real grim." West Ham is sinking like a stone, losers of three-straight and welcome Chelsea to Upton Park. Ouch. At least Santa delivers Portsmouth to Upton the day after Christmas, as well as matches on the horizon with Wolves, Blackburn, Burnley and Hull as well as the return trip to Fratton Park on Jan. 26. ... West Ham 1, Cheslea 3
Monday:
* Wigan v. Bolton -- (Check your guides) This is a lot like a nationally televised NFL game featuring the Browns, which has happened twice in recent weeks except it doesn't have the walking punchline of Eric Mangini on the sidelines. ... Wigan 2, Bolton 1
Midweek: 5-3
Season: 86-81
Look, the better pop culture lead-in for today's Premier League pick scenario would have been referencing the classic 'Seinfeld' episode where George made the bold decision to so everything to the opposite of his natural inclination. (Look, I just want to pimp 'Trailer Park Boys' one last time before Christmas.)
Nothing is making a lick of sense.
And our one Desmond Hume-approved constant -- Chelsea is better than everybody else -- is starting to show a couple nose bleeds. (2-1 at home to last-place Portsmouth?!?)
Last weekend the craziness manifested itself in totality.
During the crammed-up midweek fixtures, it was more of the same.
What planet are we living on when Aston Villa sells off its best player -- Gareth Barry -- and suddenly becomes the most consistent team in the league? (English version of the Ewing Theory?)
Are we ready to live in a world where a respected team -- Everton -- is looking toward Landon Donovan -- LANDON DONOVAN -- (emphasis) as short-term salvation?
How is it possible arguably the biggest team in the world -- Manchester United -- can't find four healthy and competent defenders on a week-in, week-out basis?
Where are we where mighty Arsenal is struggling, albeit away, to last season's promotion playoffs winners, Burnley?
How did Birmingham City find the secret tonic to move above the relegation zone and ahead of Liverpool in the table?
All these questions yield few answers.
Here are a couple of my thoroughly non-scientific suggestions.
1. The gap between the haves and have nots has narrowed, at least on the field. (Seems unlikely. Would anyone on Wolves start for a 'Big Four' club? Or even make the bench?)
2. The mid-table teams have gotten a little smarter in their approach. (Getting warmer, though his was inevitable once Newcastle United was relegated, sorry Brad.)
3. Fixture overload. (In the words of Col. Hans Landa, "That's a bingo!")
Is an over-crowded soccer calendar to blame for the wild and rampant unpredictability of the once rather staid Premier League?
Yes and no. This isn't some sort of geometric proof where you can prove that A equals B. Most of this evidence is of the empirical form from a doofus watching games on his living room coach an ocean away.
That said, look at Wednesday's 1-1 draw between Arsenal and Burnley at Turf Moor.
If you're Burnley, this is the only match on the agenda. Manager Owen Coyle isn't worrying about a European competition. He hasn't lost players to injury while on international break. Coyle has a mountain of footage of Arsenal from the season to show his team and breakdown. He can devise a fairly simple and straightforward gameplan.
Plus, on a more esoteric level, the onus clearly falls on Arsenal before the opening whistle even blew. The Gunners were expected to stroll into the tiny stadium and walk off with three points.
To me, this is a huge factor as we get closer to next June's World Cup in South Africa. The tournament prohibitive favorites -- Germany, Brazil, Italy, Spain, etc. -- are all expected (at least from the media/fans) to step on the field and immediately come away winners. The ball is in their proverbial court. Fans want it to be 3-0 within 10 minutes, so they can stop working on their ulcers.
We know this doesn't happen all too often. The longer the underdog sticks around, the tighter the favorite gets. At this point in the 60+ minute all it takes is one bounce of the ball or bad foul conceded and you have on upset on your hands.
If anything, this is a reason to think the U.S. could beat England assuming the scoreline remains 0-0 for a protracted amount of time.
I'm not sure how well this idea applies to the week-in, week-out drudgery of an actual league. It certainly must wear on a player's mental resolve to think they're expected to instantly win every game with ease.
But anyway, back to the Burnley example.
In theory the Clarets are at a disadvantage since they have a smaller team and if a player gets injured for a long spell, they have no replacement.
At the same time, most of the players in the squad are only playing that one match per week. They're keeping the miles on the odometer low. Maybe they're not as skillful or fast as the Ferraris employed by Arsenal, yet they're reliable like a Camry and clearly don't need as much time in the garage for tuneups. (Plus they're a lot safer in cold weather.)
As I've written about at length, look at Liverpool's reliance on Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard. How much longer can Gerrard keep it up. From the 2000/01 through 2008/09 seasons he averaged a stunning 50.3 matches for the Reds. Factor in England duty and all the travel it entails and its a marvel he's still able to do what he does.
Can Frank Lampard, Michael Ballack, Michael Essien and Didier Drogba run forever for Chelsea?
We saw Cesc Fabregas limp off for Arsenal vs. Burnley. Can the Spanish midfield ace afford the proper time to heal his injured hamstring? Or he forgo the long-term issues for a short term fix as Arsenal still harbors faint hopes of winning the league. Arsenal is using the term "small tear" to describe the injury. From a layman's standpoint, hamstring injuries can hamper baseball players for months, and a soccer player can recover and play again in 10 days? Doesn't seem prudent. (Fabregas is the epitome of a modern player, but how long can his career possibly last at a high level when he's spread so thin?)
Manchester United? We've seen it beset by injuries and it wouldn't be a World Cup year without a Wayne Rooney injury crisis, would it? (Please to no think this is a jinx. The tournament would suffer without the England scoring dynamo. It just seems inevitable something along those lines will happen.)
This sort of thing is likely to happen at all the Big Four teams, and even some of the lesser teams like Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, etc. with Europa Cup duty. The core of these teams are playing in multiple concurrent competitions, with international duty thrown in on top. It's not like their coffers are over-flowing with money to purchase a Serbian defender in January. (Consider me worried about the fitness level of Clint Dempsey come June.)
You can easily counter my argument -- nobody is shedding any tears for the big clubs. They are who they are and should have large enough squads to cope. (Yet, should we, in a roundabout way, penalize, or at least put a strain, due to success on the field?)
To quote Lou Brown from "Major League", "Over 162 games even tough guys get sprains, sore arms, muscle pulls..."
The thing about soccer, you really can't play at these high levels nursing an injuy. Yeah, I make fun of guys like Tomas Rosicky and Mikel Arteta for having bones man out of glass, but if you've got an ailment anywhere in your legs, running on it for 90-odd minutes isn't exactly rehabilitation 101.
You could counter the argument that the NFL is much more violent than soccer, which it clearly is. However it's only 16 games, plus playoffs for the entire year. Yeah, running around and getting nicked with a slide tackle isn't exactly Kurt Warner's head getting crunched by a 350-pound lineman, but an injury is an injury. Just ask Dean Ashton.
On top of all this, throw in that the sadists in England what a crowded holiday fixture list with games as little as two days apart -- many played in a steady, cold drizzle -- and it's no surprise the quality of play begins to suffer and the league turns all akimbo. Usually I don't see eye-to-eye with Arsene Wenger, but is he the only man in England smart enough to realize scheduling a team, in this case Arsenal, for three matches in one week isn't the wisest decision? This isn't the NBA were a team can basically mail-in the second night of a back-to-back off, either. Factor in players condition there body for routines, too, and adding a congestion of matches in two weeks doesn't make much sense either.
The alternative is shutting things down for a winter break like the Bundesliga and other leagues, but that would mean losing money and we all know sports, especially the Premier League, is a business first and foremost.
Best hope your club has some 18-year-old lighting it up in the reserves. The novel notion of building from within? That'll be a story for another day.
Saturday:
* Portsmouth v. Liverpool -- (Live, ESPN2, 7:30 a.m.) Consider this the "Schadenfreude Bowl." Slightly more exciting that the St. Petersburg Bowl airing later Saturday on ESPN. ... Portsmouth 1, Liverpool 1
* Aston Villa v. Stoke City -- Man oh man, how did James Milner become so good? Is leaving Newcastle United that much of a boost on a career, like leaving a failing marriage? ... Aston Villa 2, Stoke City 0
* Blackburn v. Tottenham -- When and if Tottenham moves out of White Hart Lane and into a new ground, why not take a page from that Stratosphere Roller Coaster in Las Vegas? Let's figure a way to put a similar ride on the top of the new stadium, that way they can increase the non-matchday revenue streams and non-Spurs fans get experience what its like to follow the team. ... Blackburn 1, Spurs 3
* Fulham v. Manchester United -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) Gun to my head, I have no idea how this match plays out. Fulham are coming off a win in the Europa League and are fairly predictable now that Bobby Zamora has hit a decent run of form. One thing to consider is if Sir Alex sticks with another striker (Berbatov/Owen) to pair with Rooney. He'd gotten away from that for a bit, but reverted to a classic 4-4-2 in the midweek. Probably has to do with the health of Ryan Giggs more than anything else. We can pretty much write in stone Roy Hodgson goes 4-4-2, since he's done that in all 16 matches. Fun Fulham fact, central defenders Breda Hangeland and Aaron Hughes are 16-for-16 in Premier League starts, while outside backs John Paintsil and Paul Konchesky are each 15-for-16. ... Fulham 1, Manchester United 2
* Manchester City v. Sunderland -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Fun fact: Manchester City have the fewest losses in the league, two. City also has the most draws, eight. Hence, an semi-disappointing eighth place position in the table. Sunderland has slipped into the 'blah' zone with its recent string of mediocrity. Take home form here. ... City 2, Sunderland 0
* Arsenal v. Hull City -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) Even without Fabregas Arsenal should win this one, right? Here's a nice nugget, Hull has three points from its last 13 away matches. Maybe we get a heavy does of Aaron Ramsey here. Either that or Wenger does his best to extend his middle finger at the Premier League bosses. ... Arsenal 3, Hull City 0
Sunday:
* Wolves v. Burnley -- (Live, Setanta, 8:30 a.m.) Why the media in England got in a tizzy over Mick McCarthy throwing out a semi-reserve team at Old Trafford is silly. Yeah, you don't want to give away a game, but what chances did he have, really? Why kill you starters in a no-win situation in the crowded fixture time of the season? What are the odds Wolves, even at full strength, hold United to a draw? 20-to-1? That said, he better beat Burnley. ... Wolves 2, Burnley 1
* Everton v. Birmingham City -- Another question, how did Birmingham become the home to the two hottest teams in the league? And since Alex McLeish's "genius" idea to play two strikers on Oct. 24, Birmingham has won six, loss none and drawn twice. Is it really that hard to manage these teams some times? ... Everton 1, Birmingham 1
* West Ham v. Chelsea -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) West Ham, hate to say it, you are LAWST. And with the club's long-standing financial troubles, it's not like they want to fire Gianfranco Zola, OR bring in new faces. As Ron Burgundy would say, "This is grim, real grim." West Ham is sinking like a stone, losers of three-straight and welcome Chelsea to Upton Park. Ouch. At least Santa delivers Portsmouth to Upton the day after Christmas, as well as matches on the horizon with Wolves, Blackburn, Burnley and Hull as well as the return trip to Fratton Park on Jan. 26. ... West Ham 1, Cheslea 3
Monday:
* Wigan v. Bolton -- (Check your guides) This is a lot like a nationally televised NFL game featuring the Browns, which has happened twice in recent weeks except it doesn't have the walking punchline of Eric Mangini on the sidelines. ... Wigan 2, Bolton 1
Midweek: 5-3
Season: 86-81
Labels: English Premier League, Prem Picks, Soccer
I agree with you on your comments about Dempsey and fitness. He has not gotten much time off since his move to Fulham between his time there and all the games he has played for the US over the last two years. While we all debate what position he is going to play, and bitch and moan over his occasional turnovers, besides Donovan, he might be the only other guy who cannot be replaced. In his favor though is his manager did not start him in the Europa league this week, saving him for this weekend. Hopefully that continues.
And this brings me to the Donovan loan. I am worried about this. Wouldnt the winter off, followed by playing in the MLS where he can be better "protected" by the refs be better then moving over to Everton right now? Is moving there for a few months really going to up his play at this point on the World level? He seemed to do pretty well last summer against top teams. If he gets hurt over there in the next two months when he could have been working on his tan, its going to look pretty foolish. I like this move next year, not in a WC year. The guys legs could use a break.
Good analysis, however: every week you thrash around and end up picking the chalk almost down the line. Throw an upset or two in there - you know they're gonna happen, especially this year, and in true Costanza fashion you might just strike gold. To sum up: Live a little, sir!
I do not feel good about the Donovan situation at all. I think he's gonna get hacked constantly and end up with a knock that affects the USMNT in the summer.
You might have a point there. Perhaps that's why I'm a miserable 5-games over .500 this year in picks.
Apparently Sweatpants and Hodgy talked some things over and Deuce will be getting some time off here and there to preserve his freshness for the Cottagers and the USMNT.
http://theshinguardian.com/2009/12/17/do-we-have-some-more-insight-on-clint-2/
As I watch Portsmouth beat Liverpool, I checked out Portsmouth's stats to rub me Liverpool-supporting friends face in it. They aren't that bad. They only lose by about 1.2 goals per game, whereas Hull and Wolves are losing by about 3+. I think they just haven't gotten some of those lucky/gutsy wins the other teams have gotten. Grant is a class manager who just beat Liverpool and almost drew Chelsea with a bunch of bums.
Wouldn't surprise me to see them stay up, and Rafa has to go now, right?