"Who am I? ... Where am I going." -- Tony Soprano/Kevin Finnerty, Season Six coma-fever dream. (Look, on closer inspection the final season of the show isn't as bad as you remember when it first aired.)
As Father Time creeps ever closer to 2010, to me, the biggest issue a soccer club can have is an identity crisis. In a perfect, Don Garber-endorsed, world every team in every league would have the stated goal of winning the league. We know that in reality, that's simply not possible.
The playing field in Europe isn't level.
Outside of, maybe, the Bundesliga there isn't much parity in the major leagues of Europe with the top titles usually fluctuating between a small cadre of power clubs. Just look at Turkey where only one club -- Trabzonspor -- has wrested the Super Lig crown away from the Istanbul three-headed monster of Fenerbache, Besiktas and Galatasaray.
Or take the Scottish Premier League, where it's a two-way dual every season between Rangers and Celtic, which conveniently enough are two clubs wondering where they stand in the world.
With over 100 years of rich history, each Scottish club has made an enormous impact on the world game. Celtic might have supporters in every country on earth and made history by becoming the first British club to win the Champions League/European Cup with its famed Lisbon Lions in 1967.
And it was only a year or two ago that Rangers were playing -- and losing -- in the UEFA Cup final.
But where are these clubs now? Chasing at ghosts of games past.
Not to bring it back to "The Wire", but remember near the very end of the final episode when Marlo gets out of jail and goes to the businessman's meeting, bailing after a few minutes of small talk? He goes back to the street and gets in a scrap with some young toughs. They didn't know who is was. His name didn't ring out anymore.
Sadly, that's happened to both these clubs. Quicker they face facts, the better.
Anyway, back to the task at hand, according to the UEFA coefficients the SPL is the 13th best league in Europe and isn't exactly a destination for high-priced, transcendent talents. Celtic didn't even make the Group Stage of the Champions League this season and struggled in the Europa League. Rangers finished last in its group behind Romanian club Unirea Urziceni, which comes from a town of 17,000 people.
Yikes.
So what are these clubs to do? With dwindling interest in the SPL and the EPL denying them access to the riches of the English game, the club directors need to decide if its worth pouring more money into the club at hopes of catching lightning in a bottle in Europe, or recede back and curb expectations.
In short, it's the worst position to be, good ... but not great enough to make an impact of win trophies.
To me, you're better off taking a Fulham 2008-09 approach. It might not be "sexy" but targeting a Top 10 finish and perhaps slipping into the Europa League isn't the worst thing in the world. It beats the alternative of of meandering around without any stated ambition or target.
Look at Everton, which many American fans in the last couple seasons have adopted as a team to root for outside the "Big Four."
David Moyes' little engine that could has chugged and chugged and huffed and puffed and maintained a place in the top six of the Premier League. No small feat for a club with modest revenues in comparison to the big fish of the league.
Now in 2009-10, with a mounting injury crisis, Everton finds itself barely above the relegation zone and heavily linked for a short-term loan for American Landon Donovan.
Did we ever think we'd read that sentence? A respected, traditional-laden club in England turning to the man derided as Landy Cakes? (Man, the English are going ga-ga over the Yanks ahead of the World Cup. This is weird.)
Saying nothing of Donovan's abilities -- he could make an impact, but where exactly does Moyes think he can play? Is is going to displace Tim Cahill -- the club's talisman -- from a withdrawn striker spot? Will be bump Louis Saha, Yakubu and Jo from the forward/striker role? Or "Little Billy" -- who the club just bought -- from the left midfield?
All these questions point to a bigger issue for Everton, and clubs in its position -- when is it time to move on? The Toffee core of Cahill, Mikel Arteta (who I respect too much to give the middle name "Milkbones", but it's getting to Tomas Rosicky-like levels with the Spaniard), Joseph Yobo, Phil Jagielka, etc. brought the club to great heights and, cruelly enough, an FA Cup runner up spot earlier this year. When can the club move away from this core, which is creeping toward 30, to the new crew of guys like Jack Rodwell, Victor Anichebe and Seamus Coleman?
Can you actually rebuild in the Premier League, where the specter of relegation hangs over the heads of every club? You can't just mail in a season like in American sports and reassess things at the end of it, hoping for a high draft pick in the process. There is no social contract in the cutthroat world of the Premier League.
Everton made its push for the top four and the Champions League financial windfall.
Can it keep chasing the dream with the same core, spending more money at the hopes of the honeypot at the end of the rainbow? Or do you make the tough decision that you have to start moving on? Is it worth selling Arteta while his name still carries some credence?
When you're Everton, or any other club in a position like it, you can't buy your way out of mistakes.
And pumping money at a problem that is beyond the control the club, well, that's a recipe for disaster.
Three other little things:
* Let's call it a huge World Cup X-factor. What happens if Ghana can somehow convince Mario Balotelli to shun Italy and play for the Black Stars? Can Sulley Muntari whisper anything into his ear at Inter?
* One thing I'd like to see added to "FIFA 11" or the EA World Cup game -- goal keeper injuries. I've logged major minutes and never seen it happen. It would add some spice when keepers rush at the players feet on 1-v-1s. Of course, gruesome facial fractures don't make for snappy television commericials. (Aren't the "FIFA 10" ads omnipresent, not just on soccer telecasts. I've seen them during breaks on "It's Always Sunny." So there.)
* Jens Lehmann, nuff said.
Saturday:
* Stoke City v. Wigan Athletic -- (Live, ESPN2, 7:45 a.m.) Isn't it something that it hardly raises an eyebrow that reports that Stoke boss Tony Pulis and striker James Beattie had a dustup allegedly over a day off following the team Christmas party? Guess it's in line with Stoke, which is chugging along with a 5-5-5 record. Wigan has proved itself to be the most unpredictable team in the league, but never seem to do much on the road. Doubt they'll have too many traveling supporters to the Britania Stadium, so no refunds will be in order. ... Stoke City 1, Wigan 0
* Birmingham City v. West Ham United -- A while ago we established there's a big blog of teams hovering around the middle of the table. At the moment, Birmingham seems to have the most juice of that six or seven team blob, winning three-straight matches and going six without a loss. Not too shabby for a club that seems to know its role. Maybe it was as simple as Alex McLeish deciding to pair Chucho Benitez and Cameron Jerome, instead of isolating a lone striker up top. West Ham still can't get out of its own way, but has won five-straight at St. Andrews, so it has that going for it, which is nice. ... Birmingham City 1, West Ham 0
* Bolton v. Manchester City -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Doesn't it just seem destined that coming off the huge Chelsea win that City stubs its toe here? That said, this team is too good to lose, even away, to a lousy bunch like Bolton. Expect almost as many traveling City fans in the building as Trotters fans. ... Bolton 1, City 2
* Burnley v. Fulham -- If you're an actual bettor, this is a red flag, stay away match. Oddly enough, both teams have scored 19 goals, though it seems like Burnley has scored much more since they've been in a couple of those 3-3-type thrillers. I did read that Fulham is putting Eddie Johnson up for sale. If he wants to make the U.S. World Cup team, retreating back to MLS and getting steady burn in March, April and May wouldn't be as bad as trying to establish himself at a new team, should somebody want him. ... Burnley 2, Fulham 1
* Chelsea v. Everton -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) Chelsea off a loss and Everton off an emotional draw is a dangerous combination. Though not as bad as its top-table rivals, Chelsea is getting some chinks in its armor with now Michael Essien shelved for a month. (We might not see the Ghana ace until February depending on the African Cup of Nations.) If Everton has to start Yobo and Tony Hibbert in the middle of defense, there is no way they withstand the Chelsea pressure, unless Petr Cech screws up a couple free kicks. (Weird Ancelotti called him out and then the Cech keeper publicly admitted his mistake on the Carlos Tevez free kick vs. City last week. Bears watching.) ... Cheslea 3, Everton 1
* Hull City v. Blackburn Rovers -- Another game I wouldn't put one red cent on. There's no way to tell how Hull City comes out in light of the Jimmy Bullard injury. It's an injury they can't replace. Blackburn, which is playing better, has an easy problem to diagnose. Big Sam needs to grab a proven goal-scorer in January. As it stand David Dunn is the club's top scorer at five. Doubt that kind of output carries into the second half of the season. Here's a name to throw out, Darius Vassell. Yeah, he's not good, but he plays in Turkey for Ankaragücü. In November he was evicted from the hotel he was living in since the club failed to pay the bill. He has played in the Premier League and might come cheap or on loan. Basically, a warm body that knows the league and might catch a hot streak for a couple weeks. ... Hull City 1, Blackburn 1
* Sunderland v. Portsmouth -- Even with a recent mini-slump, Sunderland is still pretty good at the Stadium of Light. ... Sunderland 2, Portsmouth 0
* Tottenham v. Wolves -- Thank the scheduling gods, Spurs fans. After that disaster last week at Goodison Park, they return home for a nice lay-up in the form of Wolves. Jermain Defoe will probably be out for blood after missing the would-be penalty winner. ... Tottenham 2, Wolves 1
* Manchester United v. Aston Villa -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) Manchester United? Sol Campbell? Stranger things have happened. That said, is Sir Alex that desperate? United has won its last two matches (West Ham, Wolfsburg) with a patchwork defense that would make MacGyver proud. Can they pull off the trick against a quality Villa team that probably isn't in a charitable mood? Aston Villa makes it bread on set pieces, which is something United should be warned about. That all said, United never seem to lose at home to Villa. Not sure why history matters in matches like this, but it does. Manchester United is Manchester United for a reason. And if United can get a few more good weeks out of Michael Owen, Sir Alex would be more than thrilled. ... Manchester United 2, Aston Villa 1
Sunday:
* Liverpool v. Arsenal -- (Live, FSC, 11 a.m.) It took some jogging, but remember last year when Andrey Arshavin announced his arrival in the Premier League with four goals against Liverpool, thus ending the Red slim hopes of winning the title. Yeah, it happened. I doubt there's not nearly that much excitement in this edition of the psuedo-rivalry. (Of all the possible 'Big Four' pairings, this has the least heat, right?) At stake here is at least one team can kickstart its Premier League campaign. Obviously it means more to Liverpool, which has nothing else to play for this season. For whatever the reason, Arsenal is due a classic Arsenal game and against a spotty Liverpool defense the Gunners could put up a couple goals. Plus, I think Cesc Fabreas, Samir Nasri and Arshavin run Javier Mascherano and perhaps even Alberto Aquiliani ragged. Lame analysis, but this game should be fun to watch. ... Liverpool 1, Arsenal 2
Last week: 4-6
Season: 78-70
As Father Time creeps ever closer to 2010, to me, the biggest issue a soccer club can have is an identity crisis. In a perfect, Don Garber-endorsed, world every team in every league would have the stated goal of winning the league. We know that in reality, that's simply not possible.
The playing field in Europe isn't level.
Outside of, maybe, the Bundesliga there isn't much parity in the major leagues of Europe with the top titles usually fluctuating between a small cadre of power clubs. Just look at Turkey where only one club -- Trabzonspor -- has wrested the Super Lig crown away from the Istanbul three-headed monster of Fenerbache, Besiktas and Galatasaray.
Or take the Scottish Premier League, where it's a two-way dual every season between Rangers and Celtic, which conveniently enough are two clubs wondering where they stand in the world.
With over 100 years of rich history, each Scottish club has made an enormous impact on the world game. Celtic might have supporters in every country on earth and made history by becoming the first British club to win the Champions League/European Cup with its famed Lisbon Lions in 1967.
And it was only a year or two ago that Rangers were playing -- and losing -- in the UEFA Cup final.
But where are these clubs now? Chasing at ghosts of games past.
Not to bring it back to "The Wire", but remember near the very end of the final episode when Marlo gets out of jail and goes to the businessman's meeting, bailing after a few minutes of small talk? He goes back to the street and gets in a scrap with some young toughs. They didn't know who is was. His name didn't ring out anymore.
Sadly, that's happened to both these clubs. Quicker they face facts, the better.
Anyway, back to the task at hand, according to the UEFA coefficients the SPL is the 13th best league in Europe and isn't exactly a destination for high-priced, transcendent talents. Celtic didn't even make the Group Stage of the Champions League this season and struggled in the Europa League. Rangers finished last in its group behind Romanian club Unirea Urziceni, which comes from a town of 17,000 people.
Yikes.
So what are these clubs to do? With dwindling interest in the SPL and the EPL denying them access to the riches of the English game, the club directors need to decide if its worth pouring more money into the club at hopes of catching lightning in a bottle in Europe, or recede back and curb expectations.
In short, it's the worst position to be, good ... but not great enough to make an impact of win trophies.
To me, you're better off taking a Fulham 2008-09 approach. It might not be "sexy" but targeting a Top 10 finish and perhaps slipping into the Europa League isn't the worst thing in the world. It beats the alternative of of meandering around without any stated ambition or target.
Look at Everton, which many American fans in the last couple seasons have adopted as a team to root for outside the "Big Four."
David Moyes' little engine that could has chugged and chugged and huffed and puffed and maintained a place in the top six of the Premier League. No small feat for a club with modest revenues in comparison to the big fish of the league.
Now in 2009-10, with a mounting injury crisis, Everton finds itself barely above the relegation zone and heavily linked for a short-term loan for American Landon Donovan.
Did we ever think we'd read that sentence? A respected, traditional-laden club in England turning to the man derided as Landy Cakes? (Man, the English are going ga-ga over the Yanks ahead of the World Cup. This is weird.)
Saying nothing of Donovan's abilities -- he could make an impact, but where exactly does Moyes think he can play? Is is going to displace Tim Cahill -- the club's talisman -- from a withdrawn striker spot? Will be bump Louis Saha, Yakubu and Jo from the forward/striker role? Or "Little Billy" -- who the club just bought -- from the left midfield?
All these questions point to a bigger issue for Everton, and clubs in its position -- when is it time to move on? The Toffee core of Cahill, Mikel Arteta (who I respect too much to give the middle name "Milkbones", but it's getting to Tomas Rosicky-like levels with the Spaniard), Joseph Yobo, Phil Jagielka, etc. brought the club to great heights and, cruelly enough, an FA Cup runner up spot earlier this year. When can the club move away from this core, which is creeping toward 30, to the new crew of guys like Jack Rodwell, Victor Anichebe and Seamus Coleman?
Can you actually rebuild in the Premier League, where the specter of relegation hangs over the heads of every club? You can't just mail in a season like in American sports and reassess things at the end of it, hoping for a high draft pick in the process. There is no social contract in the cutthroat world of the Premier League.
Everton made its push for the top four and the Champions League financial windfall.
Can it keep chasing the dream with the same core, spending more money at the hopes of the honeypot at the end of the rainbow? Or do you make the tough decision that you have to start moving on? Is it worth selling Arteta while his name still carries some credence?
When you're Everton, or any other club in a position like it, you can't buy your way out of mistakes.
And pumping money at a problem that is beyond the control the club, well, that's a recipe for disaster.
Three other little things:
* Let's call it a huge World Cup X-factor. What happens if Ghana can somehow convince Mario Balotelli to shun Italy and play for the Black Stars? Can Sulley Muntari whisper anything into his ear at Inter?
* One thing I'd like to see added to "FIFA 11" or the EA World Cup game -- goal keeper injuries. I've logged major minutes and never seen it happen. It would add some spice when keepers rush at the players feet on 1-v-1s. Of course, gruesome facial fractures don't make for snappy television commericials. (Aren't the "FIFA 10" ads omnipresent, not just on soccer telecasts. I've seen them during breaks on "It's Always Sunny." So there.)
* Jens Lehmann, nuff said.
Saturday:
* Stoke City v. Wigan Athletic -- (Live, ESPN2, 7:45 a.m.) Isn't it something that it hardly raises an eyebrow that reports that Stoke boss Tony Pulis and striker James Beattie had a dustup allegedly over a day off following the team Christmas party? Guess it's in line with Stoke, which is chugging along with a 5-5-5 record. Wigan has proved itself to be the most unpredictable team in the league, but never seem to do much on the road. Doubt they'll have too many traveling supporters to the Britania Stadium, so no refunds will be in order. ... Stoke City 1, Wigan 0
* Birmingham City v. West Ham United -- A while ago we established there's a big blog of teams hovering around the middle of the table. At the moment, Birmingham seems to have the most juice of that six or seven team blob, winning three-straight matches and going six without a loss. Not too shabby for a club that seems to know its role. Maybe it was as simple as Alex McLeish deciding to pair Chucho Benitez and Cameron Jerome, instead of isolating a lone striker up top. West Ham still can't get out of its own way, but has won five-straight at St. Andrews, so it has that going for it, which is nice. ... Birmingham City 1, West Ham 0
* Bolton v. Manchester City -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Doesn't it just seem destined that coming off the huge Chelsea win that City stubs its toe here? That said, this team is too good to lose, even away, to a lousy bunch like Bolton. Expect almost as many traveling City fans in the building as Trotters fans. ... Bolton 1, City 2
* Burnley v. Fulham -- If you're an actual bettor, this is a red flag, stay away match. Oddly enough, both teams have scored 19 goals, though it seems like Burnley has scored much more since they've been in a couple of those 3-3-type thrillers. I did read that Fulham is putting Eddie Johnson up for sale. If he wants to make the U.S. World Cup team, retreating back to MLS and getting steady burn in March, April and May wouldn't be as bad as trying to establish himself at a new team, should somebody want him. ... Burnley 2, Fulham 1
* Chelsea v. Everton -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) Chelsea off a loss and Everton off an emotional draw is a dangerous combination. Though not as bad as its top-table rivals, Chelsea is getting some chinks in its armor with now Michael Essien shelved for a month. (We might not see the Ghana ace until February depending on the African Cup of Nations.) If Everton has to start Yobo and Tony Hibbert in the middle of defense, there is no way they withstand the Chelsea pressure, unless Petr Cech screws up a couple free kicks. (Weird Ancelotti called him out and then the Cech keeper publicly admitted his mistake on the Carlos Tevez free kick vs. City last week. Bears watching.) ... Cheslea 3, Everton 1
* Hull City v. Blackburn Rovers -- Another game I wouldn't put one red cent on. There's no way to tell how Hull City comes out in light of the Jimmy Bullard injury. It's an injury they can't replace. Blackburn, which is playing better, has an easy problem to diagnose. Big Sam needs to grab a proven goal-scorer in January. As it stand David Dunn is the club's top scorer at five. Doubt that kind of output carries into the second half of the season. Here's a name to throw out, Darius Vassell. Yeah, he's not good, but he plays in Turkey for Ankaragücü. In November he was evicted from the hotel he was living in since the club failed to pay the bill. He has played in the Premier League and might come cheap or on loan. Basically, a warm body that knows the league and might catch a hot streak for a couple weeks. ... Hull City 1, Blackburn 1
* Sunderland v. Portsmouth -- Even with a recent mini-slump, Sunderland is still pretty good at the Stadium of Light. ... Sunderland 2, Portsmouth 0
* Tottenham v. Wolves -- Thank the scheduling gods, Spurs fans. After that disaster last week at Goodison Park, they return home for a nice lay-up in the form of Wolves. Jermain Defoe will probably be out for blood after missing the would-be penalty winner. ... Tottenham 2, Wolves 1
* Manchester United v. Aston Villa -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) Manchester United? Sol Campbell? Stranger things have happened. That said, is Sir Alex that desperate? United has won its last two matches (West Ham, Wolfsburg) with a patchwork defense that would make MacGyver proud. Can they pull off the trick against a quality Villa team that probably isn't in a charitable mood? Aston Villa makes it bread on set pieces, which is something United should be warned about. That all said, United never seem to lose at home to Villa. Not sure why history matters in matches like this, but it does. Manchester United is Manchester United for a reason. And if United can get a few more good weeks out of Michael Owen, Sir Alex would be more than thrilled. ... Manchester United 2, Aston Villa 1
Sunday:
* Liverpool v. Arsenal -- (Live, FSC, 11 a.m.) It took some jogging, but remember last year when Andrey Arshavin announced his arrival in the Premier League with four goals against Liverpool, thus ending the Red slim hopes of winning the title. Yeah, it happened. I doubt there's not nearly that much excitement in this edition of the psuedo-rivalry. (Of all the possible 'Big Four' pairings, this has the least heat, right?) At stake here is at least one team can kickstart its Premier League campaign. Obviously it means more to Liverpool, which has nothing else to play for this season. For whatever the reason, Arsenal is due a classic Arsenal game and against a spotty Liverpool defense the Gunners could put up a couple goals. Plus, I think Cesc Fabreas, Samir Nasri and Arshavin run Javier Mascherano and perhaps even Alberto Aquiliani ragged. Lame analysis, but this game should be fun to watch. ... Liverpool 1, Arsenal 2
Last week: 4-6
Season: 78-70
Labels: English Premier League, Prem Picks, Soccer
I don't think Everton (or even West Ham) really need to panic. They're like 5-6 points off of their customary neighborhood, and it's not like they're losing contact with that bunched up middle pack. They'll get healthy soon enough, put a string of results together, and be around 8-10th with a chance to do better. They probably have come down in the world a couple of notches, but that's more because Sunderland and Citeh have billionaire owners now. The only way to really do anything about that is to get some billionaire owners of their own. But they do have to watch out about their youth situation and who they sell. It'd definitely be dumb to sell Rodwell to ManU and hold on to Arteta or Cahill until they're worthless, and you could totally see that happening.