That's On Point: The Web Site

Hey...I'd planned for a big meaty Friday post, then Thursday morning I spilled coffee on my laptop and essentially fried that damn thing. My CPU status remains up in the air and I'm pretty despondent.

Here's something, at least.

Saturday

* Everton v. West Brom -- (Live, 7:45, Setanta) No Arteta, no problem? ... Everton 1, West Brom 0

* Arsenal v. Fulham -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Arsenal are bound to breakout eventually, but not against a game Fulham team. ... Arsenal 1, Fulham 1

* Chelsea v. Wigan -- Cue the Chelsea revival stories, even if it's a false hope. ... Chlesea 2, Wigan 0

* Middlesbrough v. Liverpool -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) For whatever the reason, Middlesbrough seem to play better against the big teams, but Liverpool should find a way. ... 'Boro 0, Liverpool 1

Sunday

* Hull City v. Blackburn -- A bubble finally bursts for Hull. ... Hull 1, Blackburn 2

* West Ham v. Manchester City -- (Live, Setanta, 7:30 a.m.) Will it again be shitty City on road? ... West Ham 1, City 1

* Bolton v. Newcastle -- Wear your shin guards. ... Bolton 1, Newcastle 1

* Aston Villa v. Stoke City -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Villa lost to Stoke way back in August? Won't happen again. ... Villa 2, Stoke 0

Last week: 5-5
Season: 117-138

Enjoy the Carling Cup Final Sunday.

Sorry, wish I could fill you in on my Champions League thoughts, but my computer access is limited for the near future. Hope you understand.

Labels: Prem Picks, Premier League, Soccer

Good god, it's the Champions League Anthem!

Has it really been that long? It's like when we last saw the UEFA Champions League there was a different person in the White House or something.

Let's face it, too, this year's Group Stage was about as dramatic as your average QVC spot. Celtic didn't advance and neither did Werder Bremen -- and that's about it.

The lack of drama in the Group Stages should yield some dividends in the Knockout Rounds. On paper, these are stellar, epic match ups. These matches probably represent about 95 percent of 'FIFA 09' online match making.

In short, when Athletico Madrid and Panathinaikos are the biggest "outsiders" remaining in the tournament it should bode well until we make it to Rome's Stadio Olimpo on May 27, which is actually nice because it's "Bring Your Own Knife Body Armor" in the Italian capital on the same day.

One question to the 'Net -- Is it better to be home or away first? It seems, to me, you're much better off playing the second game away from home with the away-goals rule. I'll get into this more as the tournament progresses, but ditching the away-goals rule would certainly spice up the tournament. A goal is a goal, right?

My one caveat before delving into the individual pairings, part of me is worried that even with the five-star appeal of the names, we might get some dull and forgettable matches.

Look at it this way, in a weird quirk, the likely winners of the Premier League and Serie A are paired off, as well as the leaders in Ligue 1 and La Liga. (Sorry, no Bundesliga, but it might be Hoffenheim's time next year.)

This leaves mega-clubs like Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Roma, Juventus and Real Madrid in life-and-death struggles, playing for their seasons over the next two weeks. And yes, these clubs do happen to be paired off with each other, which leaves me worrying. Are any of these club managers going to throw caution into the wind? Or will be left with dull, tactical, checker-on-a-checker grind-'em-out 0-0 fests?

Hey, there's nothing wrong with this. I love the cringing shots of fans in the crowd looking like they just caught a fart in the mouth as much as the next guy. I relish in the fans agony as the nerves build up.

It's just I like compelling, exciting soccer a fractional percentage more.

So let's look at the matchups, in order of least intriguing to best. We'll grade them on .... hmmm... let's throw something out that might get some heat on the Internets ... an Arnold Schwarzenegger scale, because there's really no such thing as a bad Arnold movie.



One-Arnolds -- "Batman and Robin"

Chill. Not even a cynic like myself can label any of these pairing as awful.



Two-Arnolds-- "Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines"

Probably a better movie than we give it credit for and might only get better with the ensueing release of McG's "Termination: Salvation" this summer. Stll, T3 is not one of Arnold's finest moments even with the "Talk to the hand" line.

Villareal v. Panathinaikos -- Not to start off cracking jokes, but this one is probably best appreciated if you have Vlade Divac beard and chain-smoke cheap Europ cigs. In other words, this is a game for Euro-purists.

Villareal, a decent UCL darling, is in fourth in La Liga and not nearly the team it's been in years past. As we know, Jozy Altidore isn't around, which is mildly dissappointing, leaving us Yanks to pine for what could have been once again with Giuseppe Rossi, the Yellow Submarine's top scorer in La Liga with 12 goals. (FYI, you're from New Jersey. Would a lifetime supply of Bruce Springsteen tickets have changed your mind?)

I'll admit my knowledge of the Greek Super League is limited, at best. Here are a couple fun facts about Panathinaikos, which is 14 points behind Olympiacos in the league.

1. It's coached by the fabulously-named Henk ten Cate, who has one the biggest schnozes in soccer. However, the club's best name belongs to South African defender Bryce Moon.
2. Dimitris Salpigidis is the Prasinoi's leading scorer and has three in the Champions League.
3. The club features Simão Mate Junior, a 20-year-old from Mozambique.
4. The 'marquee' players most of us Yanks know about are ex-Arsenal enforcer Gilberto Silva and Austrian Andreas Ivanschitz.

Prediction -- Assuming he's fit, this are the kind of ties that a player like Marcos Senna is made for. His influence can't be overlooked. ... Villareal 3, Panathinaikos 2 (aggregate)


Three Arnolds -- "Conan the Barbarian"

Maybe Conan is too low, but if you watch it the special effects from 1982 are downright laughable and the plot tends to drag. (Now, the commentary track with director John Milinus breaks the scale of comedy.) So if you, or Crom, don't agree I say to HELL with you!

Sporting Lisbon v. Bayern Munich -- Getting back to the away goals discussion, look a Bayern. If they can get at least a goal in Lisbon this week they go back to 70,000+ plus screaming, chanting, flag-waving Bavarians at the Allianz. Of course, Jurgen Klinsmann has to get Bayern back in one piece.

This is a perfect opportunity for Lisbon captain João Moutinho to showcase himself to the rest of clubs in Europe other than Bolton. He's a bruiser, and who on Bayern is going to keep him from influencing the game, Ze Roberto?

The other guy to watch for Sporting are late-blooming striker Liedson.

As for Bayern, the German giants have a ton of household names -- Ribery, Toni, Klose, Schweinsteiger, ... Donovan (just to see if you're still paying attention). But for whatever the reason, this team can't seem to get it's act together.

Prediction -- Interesting matchup between the Portguese/Brasilian style of play in Sporting, and the more German, powerful game of Bayern. If the Bayern players step up and play to their potential (Lahm, Schweinsteiger) it should win, but perhaps the pressure of being the biggest club in Germany will be too much for them to bear. This should probably be the most open game of the eight, since neither team probably can thrive playing it close to the vest. Finally, in this matchup, I actually think Landon Donovan can be an asset and I'll leave it at that. ... Sporting 2, Bayern 4

Atletico Madrid v. Porto -- Nothing like a little Iberian rivalry to get the blood flowing, eh? Then again, Spain and Portugal are trying to jointly bid for the 2020 World Cup, so many the centuries of animosity isn't what it once was when the Treaty of Tordesillas of needed to divide the "New World."

Here's my thought on Atletico Madird. They're the ultimate 'B' team. If you're reading this, then you're likely a soccer junky, so when you look at the Indians roster, it's full of a lot of well-known names who've represented their respective countries. Unless, however, Kun Aguero becomes the next Maradonna, it's doesn't feature a true superstar.

Also, a call for concern is that the club sacked Javier Aguirre on Feb. 2 and replaced him with Abel Resino, who's resume is about as good as mine.

Porto, meanwhile, has been a Champions League mainstay and manages to get the job done even as it sells off some of its better players each year. That said, current coach Jesualdo Ferreira hasn't gotten Porto out of the Round of 16 for three consecutive seasons. (Clearly, he is not the Special One.)

Prediction -- The ultimate toss-up. I'll side with Porto because I can't pick against a team with a dude nicknamed Hulkplaying for it. Stupid reason, I know. ... Porto 2, Atletico 1



Four Arnolds -- "Total Recall"

Get your ass to Mars. Nuff said.

Chelsea v. Juventus -- Well, by the time you've read this you're probably already tired of the Claudio Ranieri coaching against his former team, so I'll leave that one alone.

The Blues are the ultimate unknown, in conjunction with Guus Hiddink. The Dutchman has been successful in the Champions League with PSV, with lesser talent than at his disposal at Chelsea. What kind XI will Hiddink toss out at Stamford Bridge for the first leg and how will he play it? How will the Chelsea midfield sort itself out?

Will Chelsea players -- John Terry wink, wink -- try to overcompensate due to last year's penalty kick defeat to Manchester United?

For what it's worth, Chelsea's gotten to semi-layups in its last two Round of 16 matches with Porto and Olympiacos. Juventus is clearly a step up from those opponents.

Juventus isn't a team that's going to flop over at Chelsea's brute force. Juve's defense -- second best GA in Serie A -- is very solid with Giorgio Chiellini, though I wouldn't trust Olof Mellberg here.

If this match was played a month ago, you'd maybe give the Old Lady the edge. Juventus had a nice run from November through January, going eight unbeaten until cooling off and falling nine points behind Inter.

A few questions for Juventus.

1. Does Pavel Nedved have it in him to turn back the clock and influence the game?
2. Will Amuari step up or shrink on the big stage for the first time?
3. Can Alessandro Del Piero conjure up some magic?

Bonus -- Can we let Christian Poulsen and John Obi Mikel duke it out Thunderdome style?

Also, must note that this pits two of the consensus three best keepers in the world in Petr Cech (rugby helmet) and Gigi Buffon (bandanna).

Prediction -- This game screams out set pieces. Better yet, who'll provide the long range winner, Frank Lampard or Del Piero? Maybe this is too conventional thinking, but Chelsea's window was last season and there's just too much tumult at the club to sort together another great run. The postgame hug-circle at Villa Park on Saturday didn't make me change my mind. ... Chlesea 1, Juventus 2

Lyon v. Barcelona -- Yeah, Barca had a hiccup Saturday against Espanyol. Big deal.

Lyon is a club who's window is probably closed completely. The 400-time defending Ligue 1 champs had a truly excellent squad, but never made it happen. This year the club actually has to fend off a couple clubs down the stretch with PSG and Marseille six and seven points behind respectively.

This, if anything, is a chance for Les Gones to trump up the asking price for the eventual bidding war between Manchester United and Barcelona over Karim Benzema.

What needs to be said about Barcelona? Is it too simplistic to say -- Lionel Messi, Thierry Henry and Samuel Eto'o? Or how about Daniel Alves, the best player in the world that's not a household name. Okay, Eric Abidal is out, so that ought to slow things down for the Barcelona express.

Prediction -- Lyon has only played one team in the top eight in the Ligue 1 table in the new year -- Marseille. So jumping into the deep end of the pool against the mythical best club in the world will be some tough sledding. Barca won't stroll, but it won't break a sweat either. ... Lyon 1, Barca 4

Real Madrid v. Liverpool -- Oh dear Lord do I wish that both Juande Ramos and Rafa Benitez slip on their bathroom floor and hit their heads on the toilet and invent the flux capacitor. Err...forget they're at their current clubs are pretend they're playing for the UEFA Cup with Sevilla and Valencia.

Otherwise, this has the potential for a close to the vest, snoozer. Or, if you want to look at it the other way, a taught one-goal thriller.

We know Benitez will stuff the Liverpool midfield at the Bernabeau and try to head back to Merseyside on level terms. If Fernando Torres can steal a goal, all the better.

Does Real Madrid have the creativity around the field to breakdown Liverpool's entrenchments? And even so, who'll score? One of my one-time favorite players -- Arjen Robben -- better not sprain an eyelash and be ready to play.

What makes this weird is that this is a game between clubs from Spain and England, it'll almost be a International between players from Spain and the Netherlands. Something to consider if you're a descendant of the Hapsburg dynasty.

Prediction -- Another simplistic view, but Liverpool always -- no matter the league crisis -- succeeds in the Champions League. If the Reds return to Anfield even or up a goal, they'll go through. It might be Real Madrid, but something about this club doesn't scare anyone, even with nine straight wins. Soft isn't the right word, but even if you're the most neurotic Liverpool supporter in the world, does Real make you worry? The one thing that could tip the balance for Madrid is that Iker Casillas has the potential to win this tie on his own. ... Real Madrid 0, Liverpool 1

Arsenal v. Roma -- Question, do they air Premier League matches in Italy? If so, Luciano Spalletti you have the blue print to frustrate Arsenal -- stick players behind the ball deep and play defense for 90 minutes.

That said, that tried-and-true formula won't exactly be the path to advancing in Europe since you have to score once ... unless you want to go to penalties.

This match might actually unleash Arsenal and allow Arsene Wenger to crow about his master plan...for a little while at least.

Roma, who's been a lively team lately in the UCL, probably wants an open game to take advantage of Francesco Totti, et al. Will the Rome club have the discipline to stay tight defensively to deny the Gunners the space to attack? Can Daniele De Rossi hold down the midfield for Roma and offset Denilson and Alexandre Song/Abou Diaby?

For Arsenal, which Emmanuel Adebayor will show up? If the big Togo striker isn't on his game, where is Arsenal getting goals from? It bears noting, Arsenal hasn't scored in three straight Premier League games.

Prediction -- Though I've been more pessimistic about Arsenal than the average Wall Street investor, for some reason this seems like a place where they snap out of the doldrums. If the Gunners drew the either two Italian teams, I say they go out, but Roma probably isn't the defensive kind of team that will stifle them. This ought to be a fun two-leg fixture. ... Arsenal 4, Roma 3



Five Arnolds -- "Commando"

In my personal book, "Commando" gets the slightest of edges over "Predator" because it takes the term 'absoludacris' to all new heights. My personal favorite moment, Arnold jumping out of a moving plane without a single scratch. Trivia alert -- the nefarious/sexually confused Bennett (Arnold's worst adversary ever) is played by the same actor that played Wez in "The Road Warrior", Aussie Vernon Wells.

Inter Milan v. Manchester United -- This affair is almost so juicy I don't need to say anything.

This one might be decided in the first leg. Sir Alex can spin it however he wants, missing Nemanja Vidic is killer for the Red Devils.

Of course, Zlatan Ibrahimovic finally needs to show up on the big stage and show he's one of the top 10 players in the world. I'm sure Mourinho will have Inter ready to hack away at Johnny Evans, early and often. Even with that presumed weak link, the United defense will be tough to crack.

With Maicon and Zanetti, Inter might actually have the outside defenders to slow down the United attack, including one Cristiano Ronaldo.

Perhaps this will be decided by if Inter is sufficiently motivated by last season's flame out to Liverpool. With essentially the same club, will the veterans step up and prove Inter is the best team in Europe?

We know United won't relinquish it's crown easily.

Prediction -- Call me crazy, but wouldn't it go to script that United mange to walk away from the San Siro with a 1-1 draw or 2-1 loss thanks to gritty performances from the likes of John O'Shea, Ji Sung Park and Darren Fletcher? That said, if Adriano shows up and is motivated, Inter will be tough for United to contain. More than anything this tie might be affected most by the ref's whistle. Maybe Mourinho's instilled a never-die attitude, but until I see it, Inter remain to fragile to go to Old Trafford in the second leg to get a result. ... Inter Milan 2, Manchester United 3

Anyway, I feel I've written more than enough.

Get to the chopper!

Labels: champions league, Soccer

So...is that it?

Did Craig Bellamy's deflected goal off of Martin Skrtel effectively end any drama that was left in the 2008-09 Premier League season?

Manchester United is now No. 1 with a bullet -- seven clear of Liverpool and 10 in front of Chelsea. Take that back, it's not a bullet, it's more like those ginormous bullet's that take aim at Super Mario in the Mushroom Kingdom.

Need proof?

Wayne Rooney scored for the second time in as many games since returning from injury and looked his ever dangerous. He almost scored a goal that might have moved that wonder-volley against Newcastle a few years back to No. 2 on his goal list, when he made a run from midfield and curled a strike just over the top corner.

Oh right, Cristiano Ronaldo scored another sublime freekick which would make Sir Isaac Newtown roll over in his grave.

So in that regard, would it even matter if Liverpool found a way back from Bellamy's early second half goal Sunday at Anfield? If anything, it would have just prolonged Merseyside agony.

Witness Manchester United's remaining schedule.

March 4 at Newcastle
March 14 v. Liverpool
March 21 at Fulham
April 4 v. Aston Villa
April 11 at Sunderland
April 18 at Wigan
April 25 v. Tottenham
May 2 at Middlesbrough
May 9 v. Man City
May 16 v. Arsenal
May 24 at Hull
May 31 v. Portsmouth

How many from the possible 36 points are Sir Alex Ferguson's men going to drop? It's not a cakewalk, but unless Liverpool goes to Old Trafford and takes three points the race might be over by May.

And what's the point of heaping on Liverpool Nation this morning? In a way it's a miracle the team has kept up the fight so long, with injuries to Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard.

Perhaps the question today, is if the club is ready to finally admit that it's not going to win the league with Rafa Benitez as manager.

Saying noting of the long-since tedious stories of his contract renewal, does the club's board have the vision or wherewithal to find a new manager?

Moreover, do the supporters trust Hicks, Gillett & Co. to hire a new man to guide the fortunes of the team. At least with 'Raffer' you know what you'll get -- inconsistency in the league and a nice run in Europe, with a heaping dose of maddening lineup changes and transfer requests. Considering the club's debt and possible stadium move, maybe in this market there's no sense tinkering with a formula -- that while broken -- won't cost you the abyss of relegation. (Hey, it could conceivably happen.)

Just think, if not for the tireless work of Dirk Kuyt, where would the club be? Possibly right in the middle of the relegation scrum (more on that later). And it's no stretch to think, either, that if Gerrard doesn't play the half of a lifetime in Istanbul a few years ago, Benitez might be long gone anyway.

As I've said before there is one man out there that can guide Liverpool to its first title in the Premier League era, and he's no muppet, err puppet.

Liverpool really ought to do all it can to hire Jose Mourinho when he inevitably walks away from Inter Milan in June. Yes, the club will have to fight Chelsea for his signature.

Think how that would galvanize the club and shake up the league. Mourinho, for better or worse, is a presence that is feared in England and would instill a never-die spirit in the club that can't seem to get out of its own way at home.


Is there any correlation to the Anfield PA playing Whitesnake's "Here I Go Again" at halftime and Mourinho? No, but I'll make one anyway. Couldn't you imagine the Special One cruising, wind in his hair, Member's Only jacket banded collar flapping in the breeze, cranking out this tune?

Yeah, he's got the balls.

Winning favors the bold.

Chelsea/Aston Villa thoughts -- Sorry about the song theme, but does anyone in Inter-nets Land understand why they played Jimmy Eat World's "The Middle" after its 1-0 home loss to Chelsea? ... Very high level match. Tense throughout. ... Game changed in the second half when Guus Hiddink brought on Deco as it settled Chelsea's midfield. ... Still don't understand why Jon Obi Mikel continues to get major run. ... Chelsea made, let's say, two professional fouls when both Michael Ballack and John Terry mugged Villa playing on the break late in the game. ... Only in soccer would a team flat out say it'd rather lose, in Villa's case it's UEFA Cup match with CSKA, so it can focus on the league. Goes to show what the UEFA Cup means, eh? ... Martin O'Neill brought on John Carew as a late sub, pairing with Emile Heskey. I'd give this some more looks, because which teams could match this level of burliness? ... If James Milner isn't on England's 2010 World Cup team in some capacity that I don't know anything. ... Villa kept the ball a bit more in the second half, but Chelsea always flooded the ball on the counterattack. ... Hiddink's true worth comes this week against Juventus.

Arsenal, again and again -- (Crickets) Well, at least we got to see Andrei Arshavin who was sharp throughout...until Arsene Wenger subbed him off with 30 minutese left. Great move to rest his legs, except he's cup-tied for the Champions League. In short, Arsenal could have put pressure on Aston Villa for fourth place, but it didn't. Arsene, teams have figured you out. Time to change.

Relegation goners -- Six teams may be within seven points of the relegation zone, but I'll say with certainty that West Brom and Middlesbrough are done. D-O-N-E. In 'Boro's case, maybe it'll serve them for the best. They can play the kids from its academy and give the supporters a look at some new teams, since they're clearly not filling up the Riverside now.

One thing to consider, Hull City hasn't won a game since Dec. 6 (against 'Boro, no less) and is still six points clear pending today's match with Tottenham. All it's going to take is one good run for these teams to survive. Easier said than done, however.

Great saves -- Ton, an absolute ton of great saves over the weekend. Brad Friedel made a fine effort to stop Jose Bosignwa. Petr Cech matched him, with great stops to deny levelers from Gareth Barry and Milner. ... Manuel Alumunia continues an unheralded season with a couple good stops when pressed into action against Sunderland. Martin Fulop, however, was better and all over the place keeping Arsenal off the score sheet again. ... Shay Given was positioned great and punched away a sure-fire goal from Yossi Benayoun for City late against Liverpool.

Stat redux -- Thanks for the feedback regarding stats in soccer. After the weekend I still don't know if there's a quantitative way to rate players. There's just not enough scoring to complete a win-share type equation. What other stats can you even track? One thing I think would be good is shots from over 25 yards on target.

Of course, how to you quantify Ronaldo's freekick? Can you rate that goal higher than others? Again this reinforces the idea not to overpay unless you're getting superstar talent.

If anything, clubs ought to be a lot more prudent with their money and consider building from within. Or think of different ways to build a successful club.

Let's continue this talk, though.

Miscellany -- I weep for Everton. Can the Toffees survive a knee injury to Mikel Arteta? Newcastle apparently had more horror tackles Sunday than every other team combined, with Kevin Nolan getting sent off for a tibia-breaker with Victor Anichebe. ... Stoke 2, Portsmouth 2? Fun while it lasts. ... We need a study why Fulham is great at home and terrible away. Not to use a cliche, but is it the Craven Cottage water The discrepancy is too much to believe.

Fantasy team o' the week -- J. Dunn's 92% Pure Oxygen! takes top honors with 66 points thanks to Ronaldo, Lampard and ... Craig Beattie. Well played.

Labels: Liverpool, manchester United, Premier League, Soccer

Michael Lewis, I'm waiting.

After reading your story about Shane Battier in the New York Times Magazine this week I want you to apply the 'Moneyball' philosophy to the world's game, soccer. (Quick note, if you haven't read 'The Blind Side' stop everything and find a copy, post haste.)

It could even be pretty easy and here's your starting point. Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane is purported to be a Tottenham fan and enlisted by San Jose Earthquakes management (which also owns the A's) to devise some statistical analysis to soccer.

A couple of issues ago 'FourFourTwo' ran a feature about the growing trend of stats applied to club soccer. It wasn't that good a read, so I won't link to it.

I'd be fascinated to see what a writer like Lewis or a mind like Beane would be able to devise, because it would almost seem counter productive. Then again, the nitty gritty of all this analysis all boils down to player contracts and value, which is almost a non-issue in European soccer since there aren't salary caps, despite the urging of UEFA president Michel Platini.

At it's core, are there two more opposite sports than soccer and baseball?

Baseball, for better or worse, is consumed by statistics. It's how we can compare players that suited up 70 years apart like Paul Molitor and Eddie Collins (each hit over .300 with 3,000 hits and 500 stolen bases, only Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner have also done that statical anomaly.)

Stats mean everything and nothing in baseball at the same time. Yet with the way owners and agents haggle over OPS numbers in order to save or gain that extra $100,000 it means a lot, even if the players themselves have no clue what's going on behind the bean counters laptops.

In soccer, how many stats can even be tracked? Goals, yes. Assists seem rather subjective, right? Goals allowed and clean sheets mean something, but not necessarily how good a goalie is since there are so many other factors.

When you boil it down, though, in a given baseball play only two things can happen -- either an out is recorded, or it's not. A million variables of that equation can happen, but there are only two end results.

Since soccer isn't like baseball, with it's start/stop set up, there are zillions of things that can happen when the whistle is blown. The end of result is less clear, since the game continues to flow.

Coming up with numbers in soccer, too, doesn't tell the whole story. Sure you can create stuff like how many times a player makes a successful pass or gives the ball away. These mean something, but like ball possession, not a whole lot unless your team wins.

A statistican can point to all the numbers that prove why Manchester United won the Premier League last season. What those numbers won't show are things like Owen Hargreaves scoring on an insane free kick to win a game, or an opposing player making a clumsy tackle leading to a penalty kick.

A good method to apply to soccer would be some sort of VORP (value over replacement player) stat. Even then, this would be skewed. Plunk any League Two punter down in lineup alongside Cristiano Ronaldo and he's due to rate out well.

That's probably the big thing, in soccer the 10 other players on the field directly effect a player you're trying to rate. With baseball, when the batter swings, where and what his other teammates are doing doesn't make a difference.

What the Lewis article about Shane Battier focuses on is the hidden, lesser known grinders that actually help teams win and how to put a value on that. As we've seen in soccer, yes, the blue collar roll players matter, but nine times out of 10 you're going to win with the best players on the pitch. There's no way to find a mechanical system to put a value on the true magicians of the game like Ronaldo, Messi, etc.

Baseball is a lot like math.

Soccer is more like art.

In math everything adds up, in art many times there isn't a right or wrong answer. Well, unless you're Pam Beesley's ex-fiancee Roy, because your art was the prettiest of all the other art.


Saturday

* Aston Villa v. Chelsea -- (Live, Setanta, 7:45) Goedemorgen Premier League Guus Hiddink. I feel like Jemaine on the latest 'Flight of the Conchords' regarding the Aussie chick -- conflicted. I can't stand Chelsea, but I like Guus. Can't decide. Brian aneurysm. In any event, this is a massive, underline massive match with yooooge ramifications. If Villa take the three points they'll open a five-point gap on Chelsea and really put itself in the drivers seat for a Champions League spot. In the past Villa has played reasonably well against Chelsea, too, thanks to its speed. Chelsea Saturday is an absolute x-factor. Will the veterans come out wanting to play? What kind of lineup will Hiddink roll with? There's no way to know. I'd like to say Brad Freidel & Co. take the win, but something tells me Frank Lampard will get a trademark Keith Hernandez magic-loogie goal in the 80+ minute to undue a fine effort from Martin O'Neill's men. ... Villa 1, Chelsea 1

* Arsenal v. Sunderland -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) Eduardo had his leg reattached ... of course then he gets hurt. Andrei Arshavin has been freed from the siege of Leningrad. Cesc Fabregas might be back soon. Excuses are running out for Arsenal. The Gunners have to win this one right? Of course, they are close to Sunderland (14 points) than first place Manchester United (15). Sunderland has shown a lot of spunk and won't back down easily. ... Arsenal 2, Sunderland 1

* Bolton v. West Ham -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Bolton best take all the points here since it's hard to figure West Ham is going to be that pumped up for it. ... Bolton 2, West Ham 0

* Middlesbrough v. Wigan -- Simply, this is a must win for Middlesbrough if it wants to stick around to spin the wheel again. It's still pretty crowded at the bottom, but if 'Boro continue to post zeros, that gap will increase quickly. With only 13 games remaning, it's getting late quickly at the Riverside. Middlesbrough has scored the least goals in the league (18) since record-signing Afonso Alves -- who may have scored that many goals in one game against Heracles Almelo -- needs to step up and deliver because there's nobody else left. I'll go with desperation. ... Boro 1, Wigan 0

* Stoke City v. Portsmouth -- Just when you think Pompey is dead, they beat Man City last week in the weather-postponed make up. There are just too many quality professional at the club to let it go down ... this year at least. (Of course, that's been said before.) Stoke? What a vanilla mix of players aside from rubber-armed Rory Delap. The Potters will probably go down, but at least it didn't spend too much on players so it'll likely remain on sound fiscal grounds, which is accomplishment these days. The only hope around the Brittania Stadium is other than Villa and Arsenal, Stoke has a pretty manageable final 12 matches. ... Stoke 0, Portsmouth 0

* Manchester United v. Blackburn Rovers -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) Unless my old pal Morten Gamst Pedersen decides to spin the frozen donkey wheel and time flash back to 2005, Blackburn probably doesn't have much of a chance, especially with Man Utd-pests David Bentley and Freidel no longer around. Blackburn's only hope is if Sir Alex Ferguson decides to rest some bodies ahead of Tuesday's mega-clash with Inter Milan. United is due a hiccup, but not here even with extended Johnny Evans sightings. Maybe the only question is if Blackburn even musters a shot at the Wall of Van Dar Saar. (Watch out, Patrice Evra is back, too.) ... Manchester United 4, Blackburn 0

Sunday

* Fulham v. West Brom -- (Live, Setanta, 8:30 a.m.) Fulham's blue collar workers will punch the clock and net the win. Boring, but boring is all right these days, too. ... Fulham 1, West Brom 0

* Liverpool v. Manchester City -- (Live, FSC, 11 a.m.) My goodness...can each team battle for most backroom drama ahead of the game and award a point for it? If this were a movie (or the WWF), a City rep should meet Fernando Torres in the parking lot with a brief case full of gold bullion and get him to jump ship. But that's neither here nor there. It'll be fun to see what kind of lineup Raffer throws out there with only a few days before the first leg against Real Madrid. Will it be names out of a hat? The dartboard? Manatees pushing balls into a tank? Everything is in play. Manchester City are the picture of inconsistency and blew a 2-0 first half lead to Liverpool in the first encounter this season at Eastlands, a match I can't remember at all. Dirty Dirk Kuyt apparently had the 90th minute winner, because Goonies never say die. ... Liverpool 2, Manchester City 1

* Newcastle United v. Everton -- So now Tim Cahill is organizing some kind of charity event to benefit the Australian people ravaged by wild fires. My man-crush is in full effect. There's no point even hiding it any more. ... Newcastle 1, Everton 2

Monday

* Hull City v. Tottenham -- (Live, Setanta, 2:45 p.m.) Getting back to the stat decision, how would you like to be Harry Redknapp? You have a team of 20+, very quality players. None of them are exactly superstars, but all pretty good. How do you juggle it each week? Example, when and where do you play Luka Modric? In theory these are good questions or problems to have, but not when you're one of the richest clubs in the world sitting two points above the relegation zone with 13 matches left. My bets are 'Arry figures it out. ... Hull City 0, Spurs 1

Last round: 6-5
Season: 112-133

Labels: Prem Picks, Premier League, Soccer

Internet, hello.

Figured since the Premier League was basically dark over the weekend, sans one match, might as well make a token post to prove I'm still alive and make one gimme pick to help up my season percentage toward .500.

First, good to see Eduardo return for Arsenal after his leg snapped like a twig against Birmingham last year in the PL's version of Joe Theisman/Lawrence Taylor. Or maybe the better comparison would be Jason Kendall's foot almost falling off running over first base. (No need to link the gruesomeness, like Mike Francesa, I don't like blood.)

I'll maintain my ultra-ballsy statement, Eduardo is clearly the best player to ever represent Croatia who was born in Brasil.

As for David Beckham, who cares. Just let him go to Milan so we can move on with our lives. Landon Donovan, it appears, will be back in the warm bosom of the Galaxy since Bayern won't offer him a contract. At this point I almost feel bad for Lando since he finally wanted to try to make an imprint on Europe, but now seems stuck between stations. Then again, there was that whole Leverkausen disaster.

It's still hard to believe we're a week away from Champions League matches. Your ESPN2 matches next week are Inter/Manchester United and Chelsea/Juventus. No complaints there, and a huzzah might be in order.

Another shocker, Roman Pavlychenko doesn't like English food. It might be miserable, but if I lived in Brooklyn, I'd probably eat at the Chip Shop everyday...and then weigh a tidy 400-bills.

Best story of the week, Internet pranksters duped some German media outlets that Schalke 04 released petulant striker Kevin Kuranyi. Who says Germans don't know comedy? (Well, if you haven't seen this video yet, please click, though it proves more unintentional comedy than anything else.)

Wednesday's game

* Manchester United v. Fulham -- (Live, Setanta, 3 p.m.) -- Let my numbers do the talking. United at Old Trafford this season -- 10 W, 1 D, 0 L, 25 GF, 4 GA; Fulham away this season -- 0 W, 6 D, 6 L, 3 GF, 10 GA. If there was ever a slam dunk, bet the farm pick, this is it. United are 1-to-5 favorites, so that's almost a sure thing. ... Manchester United 3, Fulham 0

Off to buy some Tic Tacs.

Adios.

Labels: Prem Picks, Premier League, Soccer

"And you may ask yourself
What is that beautiful house?
And you may ask yourself
Where does that highway go?
And you may ask yourself
Am I right? ...am I wrong?
And you may tell yourself
My god!...what have I done?" -- Talking Heads, 'Once in a Lifetime'

This morning, Sven Goran-Eriksson, when the Mexican press is calling for your Swedish cranium on a pike, channel your inner David Byrne ... same as it ever was. (Hands off the over-sized suit, that's my ultimate Halloween trump card.)

USMNT 2, Mexico 0

Could it be any other way? At Columbus, Ohio, no less?

Fittingly the U.S. broke a 0-0 deadlock -- which I will admit scared me for much of the half -- via a goal from the right corner. This was the same way DaMarcus Beasley sealed the U.S.'s trip to Germany three years ago -- except instead of scoring the goal he set it up.

Actually, the much-maligned Landon Donovan deserves a heap of credit for setting up the goal, breaking away from his marker (Izrael Martinez) and sending the ball back in front of goal to Oguchi Onyewu, who's rocket header was stopped by Oswaldo Sanchez, but poked in by Michael Bradley.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this was pretty much the same way Bradley scored his first senior international goal in a game against Sweden last year.

Bradley will get a lot of the platitudes Thursday and going forward, but Wednesday's win had Donovan's stamp all over it -- even without the balding one adding to his U.S.-record total. He set up the second goal by Bradley in the 92nd minute, taking a ball from Jozy Altidore at midfield (via a good advantage call) and cut inside at the edge of the area to find the coach's son unmarked. And yes, Dirty Sanchez probably should have saved it, but nobody feels bad for him, right? (Bradley goal, while good, wasn't as good as this one.)

And throughout the match Donovan drew two, three and more dudes in green shirts. (Fool me eight times, shame on me.)

Nobody in the U.S. camp feels bad for Rafa Marquez either. It's a minor miracle match official Carlos Batres sent the Mexican captain straight off for a Johnny Lawrence studs-up karate kick to an exposed, in-the-air Tim Howard. (Irony alert -- Batres is from Guatemala!)

And what can you say about Howard. His save in the first or second minute on Gio Dos Santos changed the game completely. Granged, Dos Santos totally fluffed the chance and barely got a hit on it. Still, Howard laid his body on the line and (Irony alert again) will miss March's road qualifier with El Salvador for picking up a yellow card for time wasting in the Marquez aftermath.

Let's just hope David Moyes wasn't watching at that moment.

Generally I could nitpick this game apart -- the slow U.S. start and the indifferent attitude ahead 1-0 in the second half -- you know what? As I've said, it's was simply about the result tonight. Not to toot my own horn, but I picked the Bob Bradley XI and you got the game from those players you'd expect. They were what we thought they were.

* Beasley flashed moments and was at his best in a free-ranging role.

* Clint Dempsey continues to be wasted on the right wing, even if he improves at the position at Roy Hodgson's Fulham.

* Brian Ching, in the ultimate irony alert, is the assumed new No. 1 U.S. forward for everything except his goal scoring ability.

* Oneywu is still on threat on set plays, but sometimes a liability on defense and his clearances ought to come with a GPS.

* Frankie Hedjuk runs hard and gives a 110 percent effort.

* Heath Pearce continues his 0.0 VORP at the left back position, keeping the spot warm until an alien falls to earth in the form of Dani Alves and a U.S. passport.

Perhaps the only revelation from Wednesday's game was that Sacha Kljestan seemed overmatched, but even that's not a huge surprise. The bigger surprise was he shed his homeless man's locks.

There were plenty of times in the first half I -- believe it or not -- pined for a holding player like Claudio Reyna so the U.S. could get it's bearings. The first 20 minutes were so frantic, you just felt El Tri might nick one.

Those first minutes were nervy, nervy times. If Nery 'Burt' Castillo doesn't pull up lame in the 34th minute, this game maybe has a different outcome. I simply don't like the speed Mexico has against the U.S. defense.

I also worried, until the Bradley goal before the half, how the U.S. would find a way to crack through the Mexican defense. Kicking it long wasn't working because of the wind. Bradley had selected an ultra conservative bench -- the only attacking option was Jozy Altidore. If the game played out 0-0 it absolutely screamed Freddy Adu.

There was no Plan B.

Everything, though, cracked the right for the U.S. and there's no faulting that. Mexico slowed down and the U.S. amped up its possession game and cashed in a set piece -- as usual.

Meanwhile, Mexico didn't seem to have a clue. Maybe the only thing Sven was missing from his plan of attack was Benny Hill music, because aside from that one set play where the guy got behind Pearce and the ball somehow didn't find the back of Howard's net, Mexico never looked much like scoring.

The U.S. still has a lot of shortcomings, and with this current core we've seen pretty much all it can do. To me, Bob Bradley still has a lot of Herm Edwards in him, in that he does all the right things motivating the team -- up until when the game starts. The players, though, did the jobs he described. It wasn't flashy but it banked three glorious points.

That said, there's no pooh-poohing the 2-0 win over Mexico. We added to Mexico's misery is all the better. It's not more than a 50-50 bet that Sven is still around when the U.S. heads down to the Azteca in August.

Miscellany

This just in -- Brett Favre is still retired. ... Good U.S. supporters in Columbus, which ought to be the de facto home field along with RJK. ... Jozy had a bad giveaway on his first touch of the game, he then helped set up the second goal via the ref's advantage call. ... It dawned on me that Dos Santos -- who did boot Hedjuk in the face -- is a young Donovan. He's got speed to burn, but doesn't seem able to put it all together for Mexico. ... As longtime TOP contributor 30f mentioned during the live blog, does finishing first in CONCACAF merit the U.S. a better seed for the World Cup or at least avoid the 2006 Group of Death foursome? ... Suffice to say, Crew Stadium is now our Azteca, without the smog, obviously. ... Again, just to alert you again like ESPN -- Brett Favre is still retired.

Final thoughts

Three points in the bank. What more do we need to say? Wednesday wasn't a night about experimenting.

Bradley didn't throw out a roster that was going to make us nerds go all gooey and soft inside. It was efficient, tactical and designed to get a result.

If Sven gets the sword, all the better.

That 11 without a win on U.S. soil. I'm pretty sure that means CONCACAF is ours.

Time for Lost.

Labels: bob bradley, Landon Donovan, Mexico is our bitch, Michael Bradley, Soccer, svennis, USMNT

"Setting sun deals hands of gold
There's velvet eyes in Mexico
From so far away and all she said was true

Speak in tongues, speak in lies
drooling livers, born to die
It’s a wonder that those guns don't point at you", Queens of the Stone Age, 'Mexicola'

(Live blog, here)

This is probably going to sound weird coming from a guy that could write 2,000 words without breaking a sweat about the USMNT playing a meaningless winter friendly with Sweden, but ahead of Wednesday's game with arch rival Mexico I honestly don't think there's a ton to say. Don't worry, I've got talking points, but this is one of the rate oppurtunities the U.S. actually plays a team on its level in a game that matters so the usual speculation about lineups, tactics, etc. gets tossed out the window. All that matters at Crew Stadium in Columbus is getting the three points to get the final stage of CONCACAF qualifying off on the right foot.

And let's face it, even if Mexico were to end it's decade-long drought on U.S. soil, the Americans are still going to make it to South Africa next year barring a total meltdown.

If anything, this game will be a defining moment for Mexico coach Sven Goran-Eriksson, who unlike his U.S. counterpart Bob Bradley actually faces day-to-day scrutiny by the media and populous at large. It's hard to recall a time where morale was at such a low ebb in the Mexican camp, not that I feel sorry or anything.

Mexico almost missed out on the final CONCACAF qualifying stage, finishing behind Honduras and only edging Jamaica via goal-difference. Last month El Tri lost 1-0 to the same Sweden team that the U.S. beat 3-2. Factor in the distaste of Eriksson's use of naturalized players in the El Tri setup, and the knives are certainly out for the bespectacled Swede, who probably now has his bifocals focused on Roman Abramovich's Chelsea money more than anything.

Now granted I'm not the authority, but Mexico seems at a bit of a crossroads. The core of the team -- Marquez, Pardo, Salcido, etc. -- are creeping towards and over 30. Then the next wave of young guns -- Gio Dos Santos, Carlos Vela and Nery Castillo -- have all fizzled in Europe this season. Vela, who's been in-and-out of the action at Arsenal, isn't even in the squad and Uno-brow (Castillo) has been MIA since the 2007 Copa America, and I'm not talking about the Paper Planes version.

Mexico almost needs a good result in Columbus, too, with three of its first four qualifiers away from the Azteca.

Sum all this up and this serves up a tremendous, underline, tremendous opportunity for the U.S., should it want to take it. In one fell swoop, Bradley could both get three points and land a right cross to the jaw of Mexico and further rattle it's increasingly fragile cage.

That said, have we ever seen Bradley's team go for the jugular?

If it were up to me I'd push the tempo and attack-attack-attack for the first 10-15 minutes to see if I could catch Mexico on its heels. Yes, there is the fear of the counter attack, which is Svennis' wont, but why not press the issue? If this doesn't work, there's always the last 15 minutes where Landon Donovan tends to dominate Mexico anyway.

To follow the sports blogger credo in that you must quote a Rocky movie every six months, why can't the U.S. channel it's inner Apollo Creed and 'Go for it!'?

Talking points

** The Kljestan Question -- Based off of last month's hat trick vs. Sweden, the Chivas USA midfielder deserves a place in the first XI. As we've seen, though, that doesn't mean Bradley will opt to give him a place in the team. At the very least, Kljestan needs a place in the team, either on the right side of midfield, or more specifically paired with Michael Bradley in the middle, because he can provide something on set plays, an area the U.S. is sorely lacking with Freddy Adu marooned in France.

There is a huge chance that if Kljestan starts in the center of the park, he could be massively exposed and exploited. If the Seton Hall product doesn't play in an important game like this, when will he ever in his career? Let Kljestan sink or swim.

** Form or glory (just another story) -- Sorry for the mangling of the Clash right there. My biggest question for this match is if Bradley will take the pedigree DaMarcus Beasley has accrued in the last decade and give him the starting nod, despite his fade into oblivion at Rangers?

Via football-lineups.com Beasley has played four SPL matches for Rangers. His leg might be fresh, but rusty. One thing working for Beasley is that he's been pretty good against Mexico in the past. It also doesn't hurt that the only other alternative on the left side is Robbie Rogers, who I'd like to see play but will likely ride the pine.

** Torres, José Francisco not Fernando unfortunately -- He plays in Mexico and likely knows the bulk of the El Tri unit better than anyone else. Will that be a benefit for him why it comes to the starting XI? I'm still waiting to see where Torres' best spot in the U.S. lineup is, but he's shown some potential at least.

** Hello Jozy? -- So let's get this straight, Bradley recalls Altidore from Spain where he just transferred to Xerez in the second division, yet Freddy Adu and Maurice Edu get the cold shoulder? All three haven't seen extensive playing time since moving to Europe, but does Jozy get the nod? I can understand Adu, since he doesn't have a place in the team, but the Edu omission is puzzling considering Bradley's fondness for holding midfielders. What makes this all the stranger, I'll bet anything Brian Ching starts at forward, so at best Jozy makes a cameo. Odd.

** Old or new? -- Will it be evergreen Frankie Hedjuk or greenhorn Jon Borstein rounding out the U.S. back four? Hedjuk might pick up an unnecessary card, but starting Bornstein could lead to an epic fail.

** Uber Donovan? -- Will the time spent in Bavaria with FC Bayern have helped Donovan take that next step? After playing with the likes of Ribery, Toni, Klose, etc. is Donovan ready to take it to the next level and dominate? Personally, it'd be nice to see him channel his inner Marshawn Lynch and enter Beast Mode.

Running Items Dept.

** Will Rafa Marquez continue to get away with bloody murder against the U.S.? (Considering it's a CONCACAF match, yes.)

** Can Donovan and Dempsey function in the same lineup effectively?

** How many times will ESPN mention that Beckham guy during the telecast?

** How many times will ESPN cut away during the match to a split screen of a meaningless college basketball game or something else we don't care about. This has become my one pet peeve with ESPN since it jettisoned the terrible twosome and brought in JP Dellacamra and John Harkes. If I wanted to watch what was on the other ESPN networks -- I'd put them on myself, no need for a studio moron to update me. Plus, there is that slightly noticeable crawl across the bottom ad nasuem.

** Bob Bradley has to be able to out-coach Svennis, right? Right?

Lineup guess

Let's just put this down, here's how I'd assemble the XI puzzle.

GK -- Howard
Def -- Hedjuk -- Onyewu -- Califf -- Bocanegra
Mid -- Donovan -- Bradley -- Kljestan -- Rogers
For -- Ching -- Dempsey

A couple notes, Bocanegra is playing leftback at Rennes. The upgrade of Bocanegra over Heath Pearce outweighs the downgrade from Bocanegra to Danny Califf. This will never happen Wednesday.

In the midfield, I'd start Donovan wide right and see what happens and juggle it if needed. Rogers looked ok against Sweden and is likely in better shape than Beasley, of course this will never happen either.

I'd leave Dempsey behind Ching, who's been effective against Mexico in the past. This leaves the door open for Altidore as a sub.

Here's Bradley's XI...

GK -- Howard
Def -- Hedjuk -- Onyewu -- Bocanegra -- Pearce
Mid -- Donovan -- Bradley -- Kljestan -- Beasley
For -- Ching -- Dempsey

I'm crossing my fingers that Kljestan starts over Clark. He has to, right? There are no surprises in this potential lineup aside from the possible inclusion of Kljestan, so since the teams know each other so well, it'll come down to which side executes.

Final thoughts -- Is it just me or is it possible the US/Mexico rivalry has peaked? The last 10 years the U.S. has held its own in the once lopsided rivalry, including the eternal 2-0 win in South Korea.

Gone are the players like Blanco and the rest of his generation who had no respect for the American team. Perhaps the only left Mexican that truly ruffles my feathers is Marquez. Donovan can rehash those 'Osama' comments but those were a looooong time ago. ESPN might try to play up this angle extensively, I just think it's lost a lot of its heat considering how much the on-field dynamic has changed.

Don't get me wrong, itt's still an awesome fixture to watch live in-person. There's still plenty of animosity on both sides but until Mexico can get things going again the level of heat won't be exactly the same.

As for the game, if it's anything like the last couple matches, it'll be decided on set pieces. Bradley's reliance on the Onyewu-Bocanegra pairing probably proves its worth here. ... U.S. 2, Mexico 0.

Enjoy...



[FYI, I'll probably be hosting a live chat/blog thing at FanHouse on Wednesday night, so please check it out. I don't want to be typing to myself. Also, I'll have a full recap up here Thursday a.m. depending when I watch my DVR of 'Lost'.]

Labels: bob bradley, Mexico is our bitch, Soccer, svennis, USMNT

Late-winners.

Controversial red cards.

Terrible misses.

Cracking wonderstrikes from 35-year-old Welshmen.

And Manchester United alone in first place.

In other words, just another weekend in the Barclay's Premier League.

Where to begin in the aftermath of another seminal weekend in the competition? There are other candidates, but let's start with maelstrom that is Liverpool Football Club.

There probably won't be a more bizarre match than Liverpool's 3-2 win at Fratton Park over Portsmouth Saturday afternoon. The first half was borderline unwatchable and I in an active email back-and-forth if Rafa Benitez was purposely trying to get fired?

Of course, after the full 90, instead of two weeks (FA Cup break) of stories about Raffer's imminent demise after Hermann Hreidarsson's free header made it 2-1 Portsmouth late-on, the Reds were alone in first place, albeit for less than 24 hours via a 3-2 win.

What when through the portly Spaniard's mind decided to start David Ngog and Ryan Babel ahead of Fernando Torres and Ryan Babel we'll never know. I'm sure he had his reasons and as of yet he's yet to pull a Raymond Domenech in consulting the astrological tables, at least.

For a novice like myself, it seemed pretty simple. You're two points behind first place, shouldn't you play your best players and try to win a game against a sinking Portsmouth team? (Note, was Tony Adams trying to make a statement about the hangman's noose with that audacious technicolor scarf we sported on the touchline?)

Again, Raffer gets the last laugh since a) Peter Crouch screwed up a back-pass, giving Liverpool an indirect kick in the box, which Niko Kranjcar decided at the last minute to vacant guarding the near post and b) David James reaction times are down to that of the tin man without oil.

Whatever, though, Fernando Torres is a legend and probably has caused more conflicted thoughts amongst English men since Boy George. Let's enjoy this Liverpool roller coaster until it finally crashes off the tracks.

The next story that emerged is the new battle for fourth place between Cheslea and Arsenal. Even as the Blues have sputtered, I've always feared them and figured they'd get enough points at home against teams like Hull City they'd mount a decent challenge for Manchester United. After a 0-0 draw to the Tigers, I don't know.

It may be simplistic to say, but it's probably not Chelsea's year when John Terry misses a wide open goal off a free kick.

And furthermore, it's hard to pick who's been more disappointing this season, Michael Ballack or Deco. Oh, let's throw disinterested Didier Drogba in the mix, too.

It might be worth finding an off-shore site and wagering a little cash that Phil Scolari walks out this week and retires to Mooseport. He might be a good coach with a great rep, but whatever his tactics are at Chelsea, they're not working.

The refuse to die spirit instilled by Jose Mourinho is all but gone. (Another prop bet, drop some money that the Special One is coaching either Liverpool or Chelsea again come August.)

As for Arsenal? The Gunners still haven't lost a match in the league since Nov. 22, but haven't taken the full 3-points in three, so there you go. Adding to the crisis, Emmanuel Adebayor is out at least three weeks with a hamstring injury. Fun.

Arsenal did show some grit, going down to ten men 30 minutes into Sunday's 0-0 draw with Tottenham at White Hart Lane after Emmanuel Eboue decided to fail at Luka Modric for his second yellow. (Man, has Eboue fallen off since his great run in the 2006 Champions Leauge.) In fact, Arsenal probably should have won if the immortal Alexandre Song didn't miss a pair of open chances in front of goal in the second half.

Still, at this point, five points adrift of Chelsea for fourth and 12 off the lead all that might be left for Andrei Arshavin is to eject some much needed entertainment value into the Gunners.

Finally, Manchester United again showed why it'll end up winning the league for its third straight season. Injuries have messed up the lineup all over the field, but the team continues to find a way, this time when Giggs faked two West Ham players out of their jocks and fired a worm burner past Robert Green.

About the only intrigue left with United might be if they fail to beat Fulham at Old Trafford Feb. 18 for it's final game in hand. (FYI, Fulham is 0-6-6 on the road, scoring just three goals away from Craven Cottage.)

Other stuff

Honduran Hercules-- After Sunday, let's just say I'm pretty pumped to see what Wilson Palacios can do against the U.S. in World Cup qualifying when Honduras plays the Yanks on June 6. The dude was all over the field against Arsenal, making tackle after tackle. Just a heads up to Landon & Co., eat your Wheaties that morning.

Best managerial tactic, ever -- 'Major League 2' might be one of the biggest disappointments in my movie-going life. There is one good scene though, where crusty manager Lou Brown rails against his under performing team, finally dropping on the clubhouse floor with a heart attack. It's extremely unlikely Newcastle boss Joe Kinnear has seen a movie about baseball, but who knows. It worked for Brown in the flick and for Kinnear Saturday, as the Magpies won at West Brom 3-2.

Løvenkrands and Gilderstern are dead -- Sorry, couldn't resist after the Dane scored for Newcastle Saturday.

Miscellany -- FYI to Adel Taarabt, next time you find yourself in a 2-on-3 in the final minute of a game, perhaps passing to Robbie Keane up the left side would be a good idea. But that's just me. ... Unofficially, Arsenal leads the league in something -- players leaving the field in a bloody mess after Gael Clichy trotted off from White Hart Lane with a gushing gash on the back of his head. ... Giovanni took one of the worst free kicks I've seen in a while Saturday against Chelsea. Get it on frame. Hull might have won the match if Craig Fagan could aim his shots a little better. ... Maybe I should say more about Aston Villa and Everton, but they're rolling so why jinx it? ... One thing, can I please have some of the Goodison dressing room drinking water, how else to explain Jo?

Fantasy team o' the week -- Rob Candrian's 'John Terry's PK' takes top honors again, this week with 69. Only 17 points separate first and second between the would-be Manchester United of the league, Corey Shambaugh (Joey Barton Hit Me) and Kent Darcy (La Academia.) Shambaugh, I'm pretty sure, won last year too. Maybe he ought to start playing for money.

____________________

The USSF finally released its roster for Wednesday's qualifier against Mexico. Not a lot of surprises aside from the inclusion of Jozy Altidore and omissions of both Freddy Adu and Maurice Edu. Oh, and the 99.9 percent chance we'll see Ricardo Clark in the midfield.

Goalkeepers: Brad Guzan, Tim Howard.

Defenders: Carlos Bocanegra, Jonathan Bornstein, Danny Califf, Frankie Hejduk, Oguchi Onyewu, Heath Pearce, Marvell Wynne.

Midfielders: DaMarcus Beasley, Michael Bradley, Ricardo Clark, Sacha Kljestan, Robbie Rogers, Jose Francisco Torres.

Forwards: Jozy Altidore, Brian Ching, Charlie Davies, Clint Dempsey, Landon Donovan.

A full Mexico/US preview-rama sometime on Tuesday. If people are interested I may host some kind of a live chat during the match if there is enough interest.

Labels: Monday recaps, Premier League, Soccer, USMNT

Got to admit it up front, no coherent preamble before the picks. Just a couple thoughts to keep you warm until USA/Mexico next week. I'll make it up to you, I promise.

In case you missed it, Sky got four of the six Premier League packages in the newest deal, leaving Setanta and ESPN to battle for the other two.

How this translates to us in America is beyond me, though it likely bodes well for Fox Soccer since Sky is owned partially by News Corp., which owns FSC. Guess we'll find out soon enough. [Update -- ESPN got shut out in the UK, not sure what it means for us Yanks.]

...and this whole Beckham thing. The Galaxy ought to do the right thing and let him stay in Italy. You can't hold the guy against his will and force him to smile about playing in MLS.

It is a tad ironic that the guy that essentially forced Beckham to accept the Galaxy's deal in 2007 -- Fabio Capello -- is the same guy that he's now trying to woo and earn a 2010 World Cup spot with.

...when was the last time a Champions League match was played?

Saturday

* Manchester City v. Middlesbrough -- (Live, Setanta, 7:45 a.m.) City seem to yo-yo and are due a good performance at home. Your last Middlesbrough league win...that's right -- Nov. 9!! ... City 3, Boro 1

* Blackburn v. Aston Villa -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) It's the Brad Friedel bowl at Ewood Park. This is another hard to calculate item, but how much better would the Blackburn defense be this season if Big Brad were in nets? Not to say he'd stop a ton more shots than Paul Robinson, but he'd likely inspire the defense to play better just because they know he's behind them. ... Blackburn 1, Aston Villa 2

* Chelsea v. Hull City -- (Live, Setanta, 10 a.m.) Chelsea adding Quaresma might be the most useful move of the window, since it gives the team a little more options wide. If the Portuguese international comes to play is another question all together. At least Chelsea ought to mush Hull at Stamford Bridge to stop the immediate bleeding. ... Chelsea 2, Hull City 0

* Everton v. Bolton -- Everton remains the little (big) club that could. ... Everton 1, Bolton 0

* Sunderland v. Stoke City -- If this was a wrestling match, maybe we could make it so the loser can't wear red-and-white stripes any more just to spice it up. ... Sunderland 1, Stoke 1

* West Brom v. Newcastle United -- What would you rather be, bad and bland like West Brom or bad and tragically funny like Newcastle? ... West Brom 2, Newcastle 1

* Wigan v. Fulham -- Here are you two 'surprise' teams. Two teams built with lesser transfers made to build the team the right way. ... Wigan 1, Fulham 0

* Portsmouth v. Liverpool -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) No Gerard, no hope for the Scoucers? Luckily they get Portsmouth, who's been pretty bad. Fernando Torres, pack a lunch...and a superman cape. ... Portsmouth 1, Liverpool 1

Sunday

* Tottenham v. Arsenal -- (Live, Setanta, 8:30 a.m.) Look at the size of that Russian! Ok, Andrei Arshavin is probably doesn't come up to Ivan Drago's waist, but indulge me. Arsenal really ought to turn the ex-Zenit player out and see what he can do against the rather suspect marking of Tottenham. This might be the prefect place for Arsenal to end its mini-slide, since it's highly unlikely Spurs will pack their players in and allow the Gunners to attack. At home Tottenham should try to create chances, which ought to open up the match. You never know which Spurs team shows up, which should make this one highly entertaining. Oh yeah, that whole Robbie Keane thing too. ... Spurs 2, Arsenal 2

* West Ham v. Manchester United -- (Live, FSC, 11 a.m.) West Ham have given United trouble lately. After bearing down and holding Arsenal last weekend, are they ready to give another 90 minutes against United? As I've said, United are due a hiccup, but it's not going to happen at Upton Park. ... West Ham 0, Man. Utd. 1

Last round: 3-7
Season: 106-128

Labels: Prem Picks, Premier League, Soccer

"Default? The two sweetest words in the English language." -- Homer Simpson, "Deep Space Homer."

Right now that how it looks about the 2008-09 Premier League title race. Manchester United are going to win it by default, because right now it appears to be the only club that really wants it.

Perhaps making this declaration after a weekend where United won 1-0 vs. Everton on a pretty suspect penalty call and Liverpool rallied late to a 2-0 win over Chelsea, but hear me out. (More on Liverpool from a guest panelist.)

United have raced up the table, having not lost since Nov. 8 to Arsenal. Sure the gap is only two over Liverpool (with a G-I-H), but it might as well be 20 because do you have any faith in Rafa's men starting down SAF's crew?

The rise of Manchester United is pretty simple -- they haven't let in a league goal since that loss to Arsenal.

The reason for such a sterling defensive record, to me, seems pretty simple. Almost every team in the PL likes to attack by getting its fullbacks forward. Against United opponents defenders can't get ahead since they're spending so much time tracking Cristiano Ronaldo and the rest of the Red Devil wide players. This generally leaves the only attacking option going up the middle, which means running into the brick wall formed by Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand.

As Rafa would tell you, United might be playing with 12 men, vis-a-vis the ref. It's probably not 100 percent true, but remains something that can't be overlooked.

What another reason why United might end up running away with the title, assuming Chelsea can't get its act together -- this schedule is softer than a Twinkie. Here's United in the league in February -- at West Ham; v. Fulham (G-I-H); v. Blackburn; v. Portsmouth. After that it's v. Tottenham; at Newcastle, which could possibly render March 14 game against Liverpool at Old Trafford a moot point. Even with the injuries how many points with SAF's men drop before that match? And based on what we've seen from Liverpool they'll sprinkle in a few draws and lose two points on the weekend.

So in my harebrained opinion, unless Ronaldo decides to channel his inner Vin Diesel on the English roadways between now and May, United are in the driver's seat.

As for Liverpool's title aspirations, let's hand it over to the one-and-only Ace Cowboy. Take it away Ace...

"Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in." We know how you feel, Michael, we know just how you feel. Fresh off last week's devastating Anfield Double Draw against loathed rival Everton, Liverpool supporters can actually have, ya know, some hope from watching their frustrating yet beloved Reds do the season double against loathed quasi-rival Chelsea (for the first time, coincidentally?, since winning the league almost two decades ago). It's still an uphill climb to topple Sir Punchnuts' peaking machine, but Super Bowl Sunday's 2-0 better-late win against a lackluster 10-man Chelsea squad certainly stokes Liverpool's dwindling title-hunt flames. The hope that was so lost in the form of two points last Monday is back already this Monday.

Before the match I predicted Obi Mikel would pick up a straight red at 64 minutes, just because that's what Obi Mikel does. Little did I expect Lampard to see straight red, and that call will most definitely be at the heart of every reporter's recap of the action. It was a dreadful call, even from this partisan it's woefully incorrect, and it will certainly fuel Chelsea's "Mike Reilly is a Cunt" at the Bridge next go-round. But let's make one thing clear: Chelsea looked awful up to that point, and they looked about as bad after it. From this match they deserved no points, and may God have mercy on their souls. Ballack was laughably bad, Boswinga was so lost that he felt compelled to just kick people in the back, Cech looks like he's lost about five steps, and they didn't have a single reliable player outside of Alex, who may still have been Man of the Match (despite getting beat for Torres' first).

Torres' brace, however late, was absolutely necessary -- necessary for his confidence, necessary for the team's confidence, necessary for Rafa's survival. His first may have come against 10 men, and his second was Chelsea was pushing for an equalizer, but nothing makes a striker more dangerous than the feeling that he can score in every match. And given what's inexplicably going on between Rafa, Keane, Parry and Rafa's goatee, Torres scoring at every opportunity cannot be understated. Also, Yossi needs more playing time, Riera needs both a right foot and a first touch, Babel needs to remember how to play football, and Kuyt needs some Rocky Road. Sloth love Chunk!

(By the way, there's talk that Torres did the above Siddhartha-type pose after his first goal in support of Rafa, considering the gaffer did the same pose some years ago. My theory is since he's been out of form lately, he wanted to show off his thighs in order to change the story back to his inherent handsomeness.)

But just as we did with Chelsea, let's make one thing sure for Liverpool: This club has significant problems. Outside of these two late goals they've had immense problems scoring. Their creativity in the final third of the pitch is insulting, and the one guy who could possibly help them -- legitimate and proven scorer Robbie Keane -- has no place in the squad. The front office is still as fucked up as ever, uglier than Yossi and Kuyt combined. But both Liverpool and Manchester United have four winnable matches ahead of them before meeting on March 14th, and if Liverpool can somehow come through unscathed and nip one at the Theatre of Dreams, this season ain't over yet. Even after it was pronounced dead last Monday.

My thoughts exactly, except I would have made a crack about Yossi Benayoun's ass being sore after Bosingwa's blatant stomp.

Karma is a fickle bitch -- Remember when James Milner scored that ridiculous, deflected goal against West Ham a couple weeks ago? The evened out Saturday against Wigan. In the 70th minute I don't know how the ball didn't end up in the Wigan net after pin-balling around the penalty area. A little later, after a rare indirect free kick, Paul Scharner twice blocked rockets off the foot of John Carew and Ashley Young. At least, for Martin O'Neill's men, Arsenal grabbed a 0-0 draw as well.

Arsenal, a modest proposal -- Dear Arsene, consider this -- you're 'champagne football' isn't working. Trying to string together 45 passes to get a goal ain't happening with teams packing the defensive area. Why not just try humping balls up to Emmanuel Adebayor, who can knock them down to Robin van Persie in the box. One not try it for a game and see what happens?

Strangely weird joke of the week-- West Ham's new German signing Savio might be the tiniest Teuton since Accept frontman Udo Dirkschneider. (This is a bit of a stretch because Savio was born in Uganda and Udo never represented Germany past the U-17 Metal level.)

Around the league -- Middlesbrough 0, Blackburn 0...could it be any other way? Those two, along with Portsmouth, Newcastle, etc. are playing their own version of that old site, ratemypoo.com. ... So right, Shay Given is that big an upgrade for Manchester City over Joe Hart? According to what I've read, City was a joke against 10-man Stoke. Wouldn't it be cruelly hilarious if City were relegated? Can you imagine the pitch -- come to City and you can see lovely Doncaster. ... Where did this Puygrenier dude come from at Bolton? ... Is there a bigger North London Derby than next Sunday's at White Hart Lane?

Fantasy team o' the week -- Andrew Smock's Harkes Haircaire takes top honors with 58 points, thanks to Fro Torres. My mistake, top honors to John Terry's PK managed by Rob Candrian.

One note -- If you read the site on a feed reader, double check you're still connected because my service (Feed Burner) got incorporated into Google. Just a heads up.

Enjoy the final day of the transfer window.

Labels: Chelsea, Liverpool, Monday recaps, Premier League, Soccer