Wrapping up World Cup 2010 preview-cum-"The Wire."
Here's Part I and Part II.
* * *
"I love the first day, man. Everybody all friendly and shit." -- Namon
At least for the first week or so, or until another star players is taken out by injury, South Africa will be the story of the tournament.
The reporting should be all over the place. We'll get the gambit, from it was a great idea by Sepp Blatter to bring the Cup to Africa, to all the unsold seats, empty stadiums to how sport has helped the nation move past apartheid. Oh, and the Brits will be obsessed by all things vuvuzela.
Me? I'm a little bummed it was too cost prohibitive to travel to South Africa, despite winning the USMNT ticket lottery. Part of me is extremely grateful I'm not dealing with the hassles of traveling around the country and worrying about my personal safety. Someone I respect labeled downtown Jo-Burg as straight up "Blade Runner."
In the long run, my guess is the Cup goes off pretty much without a hitch. The lack of traveling fans will make FIFA think long and hard about the 2018 and 2022 bids. They're probably be some sort of bad incident away from the field, not sure what, but it's unfortunately inevitable.
The good thing is, with so many top notch U.S. voices over there we'll get a lot of perspectives to what's really going on over there.
And if you're a terrorist, is trying to create havoc at the World Cup game really the way to win the public over to your side? Don't most people love the World Cup, or at least that's what Bono has led me to believe.
As for the Bafana Bafana, don't be fooled by their nice run of results leading up to the Cup, including a win over Denmark. This squad will be outmatched, even with the hometown support, though it would make sense all things considered if they lodge a result of some kind vs. France.
"No shucking, no jiving, just good honest police work, how bout that Jimmy." -- Bunk
This, my friends, is the new Brazil. Dunga's Brazil. A Brazil devoid of flair, but high on grit, work rate and crew cuts#. Maybe the only classic Brazilian player in the mix in South Africa is Robinho.
# Who rocks the power crew better, Dunga or Ron Donald?
It's hard to believe Brazil's best players are probably outside defenders who play the same position -- Maicon and Dani Alves -- and it's most depth lines in defensive midfield types. (Gilberto Silva, Ramires, Felipe Melo, etc.)
Sure Kaka is still around, but that's about it.
The only question is if Luis Fabiano and Nilmar are enough to get the job done up top and who's playing at left back. Goal scoring? That'll come. But with a compact midfield, Brazil will need somebody on the left to complement Maicon to create some width. Converted forward Michel Batos appears to be the man. If that falls through, Elano is going to need to have a big tournament.
To beat Brazil, you're likely going to have to hope their heads aren't in the game, when France knocked them out in both the 1998 final or in 2006, the latter with an evergreen performance from Zinedine Zidane. Penciling them into the July 11 at Soccer City isn't crazy, but it's not as rock-solid as years passed.
It's worth mentioning Brazil won in 1994 and 2002 in American and Japan Korea, the last two-non European tournaments.
So as long as Dunga doesn't leave mid-tournament to film a sequel to "Clear and Present Danger," Brazil seems in good hands. Just keep the salsa music to a minimum.
"We're good at this Lester. In this town, we're as good as it gets. ... Natural police." -- McNulty/Lester
If you want to split hairs, the Champions League is probably the best soccer tournament on the planet. Aside from that weak team with an unpronounceable name from Cyprus that sneaks in as the 32nd team in the group stage, most teams are legit. Unlike the middling teams in the World Cup, club teams at least have the time to practice on a daily basis and build up some cohesion.
That said, the World Cup is no slouch, particularly once you get to the Round of 16 and quarterfinals. These are the best of the best.
To advance and win in the World Cup, you've got to be good. Hell, the probable quarterfinal between the Netherlands and Brazil might decide the entire tournament.
Remember, though, guys like Ronaldo and Messi aren't piling up and padding their goal totals against some over-matched defender from Tenerife, once we get deep into the tournament.
"Tomorrow ain't promised to no one." -- Marlo
Consider the generally agreed upon "Group of Death" -- Brazil, Portugal, Cote d'Ivoire and North Korea. One of the top three is going home early. Same thing with the intriguing Group D of Germany, Serbia, Ghana and Australia.
France is certainly no sure thing to advance from Group A.
The U.S. or England could stumble if they aren't at least careful in Group C. Just because the U.S. did great the the 2009 Confederations Cup also contested in South Africa doesn't make the 2010 World Cup an automatic.*
* Neither is assuming Jozy Altidore, is going to start each U.S. game and make an impact.
Sure favorites like Argentina, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain look like locks to get through the group, but you just never know. The impetus is on the favorite to make something happen. You've got to make the goals. This isn't the first rounds of the NCAA tournament where the higher seeds eventually win out on talent alone.
Just because you're the best team on paper, it doesn't necessarily mean the Cup is yours for the taking.
History backs this up, too. In 1954 Hungary's legendary side featuring Ference Pukas, lost to West Germany in Berne in the finals. And the Magical Magyars were up 2-0 inside the first eight minutes, no less. The Dutch, too, figured to be champions elect in 1974 and led West Germany 1-0 in that year's final in Munich on a second minute penalty.
You aren't handed the World Cup, that is, unless you get a tatted-up crazy man to induce a headbutt against your opponent's all-time greatest player in the waning stages of extra time.
"Don't matter who did what to who at this point. Fact is, we went to war and there ain't no turnin' back. I mean, shit, it's what war is, you know? Once you in it, you in it. If it's a lie, then we fight on that lie. But we gotta fight." -- Slim Charles**
Ever since the U.S. final 23-man roster was released I've been repeating this quote in my head time-after-time.
For me the fate of the U.S. boils down to defense. If the U.S. keeps its defensive shape and not allow acres of space for opponents at the fringes of the penalty area. If the defense -- with an 80 percent Onyewu or not -- can keep opponents to a goal or less, the rest of the team should contribute enough goals.
If this a "Dream Team" Bradley the Elder has assembled? Not really. It is what it is.
Like it or not, Jonathan Bornstein included, they're what the U.S. has down in South Africa. Bring on Germany, Serbia or Ghana -- the power of positive thinking.
** Who was better than Slim?
"Man say if you wanna shoot nails, this here the Cadillac, man. Meant Lexus but he ain’t know it. ... Hold a charge better? ... Man, fuck a charge, this here’s a gun powder activated, 27 caliber, full auto, no kickback, nail-throwing mayhem man. Shit right here’s tight." -- Snoop/Partlow
When it's rolling, Spain's tic-toc passing is hard to stop. If you go into a game with Spain and think you're beating Xavi, Xabi Alonso and Andres Iniesta in a possession game, you're lost. It's not happening. The U.S. at the Confederations Cup showed Spain could be beaten, but you have to convert nearly every game they give you.
Oh, and Fernando Torres, David Silva and David Villa up top aren't exactly slouches.
If you're playing against Spain and you are foolish passing the ball around in your own end or near midfield, Torres and Villa are lethal at intercepting your mistake and taking it the rest of the way.
As good as Spain is, something tells me they're not winning in South Africa. Call it a gut feeling -- not scientific, I know. We'll know more about Spain when we see its first game on June 16 vs. the Swiss. If Spain simply steps on the field and expects the other team to roll over, allowing them to shop for new hair bands during the match, it won't bode well.
Only once has the reigning Euro champ followed it up with a World Cup championship, with Germany going back-to-back in 1972-to-1974.
Complacency is a worrisome issue, typified by the sometimes laissez-faire approach from defender Sergio Ramos. Teams have had two years to work on a plan to stopping Spain, and the U.S. amazingly showed it could be do if you've got the elbow grease, plus some fortuitous bounces.
Spain will stroll and put up double-digit goals in their toilet paper-soft group (Swizterland, Chile, Honduras). Eventually they'll run into a team who stands toe-to-toe with them. You're blowing out the Top 8 by 4-0 scores, are you?
Put it this way, if Iniesta is pulling off what he did against Poland at the Cup, I'll eat my words. Words, I said, not my shoe like Werner Herzog.
(Consider this, Spain might run into Argentina if they both win their groups. Isn't Messi at his best playing mainly against Spanish opposition in La Liga? File the kernel away for early July.)
"How you expect to run with the wolves come night, when you spend all day sparrin wit' the puppies." -- Omar
For years and years, Mexico was the giant in CONCACAF. The big dog in a small pond, at least until the USMNT assumed that crown. Sorry, but Honduras looks like a three-and-out at this Cup.
Outside of the warm bosom of Mexico, or at least the toxified air of the Azteca, El Tri reverted back to being mere mortals.
Where we are standing ahead of the 2010 is somewhere in the middle. Javier Aguirre rescued the Mexicans from the stink Sven put them in midway through qualifying.
Mexico is looking more-and-more like a darkhorse after playing England tight and then beating Italy last week.
Two things are working in Mexico's favor: 1. Speed, in the forms of Gio Dos Santos, Andres Guardado, etc. 2. They're used to playing at altitude from matches at Azteca, don't discount this.
Plus with Cuauhtémoc Blanco holding things together at the ripe old age of 37, El Tri look dangerous. If they can win Group A ahead of France or Uruguay and avoid Argentina in the Round of 16, watch out. Some might say playing the hosts in the opening game is tough, but the pressure here is firmly on South Africa. Mexico can pounce, bank three quick points before 30 teams have even kicked off and be well on its way.
Remember, too, Aguirre and El Tri have played about 57 money-making matches in the build-up to the finals, beating New Zealand, North Korea, Chile and Italy, while looking very good in losses to Holland and England. Mexico might be the most game-ready nation in the field.
Hate saying this, but I do indeed like Mexico's mix of gritty domestic players and flashy, young Euro exports.
I'll never like Rafa Marquez, but hey, a high tide for CONCACAF rises all ships.
"A good church man is always up in everybody's shit. It's how we do." -- The Deacon.
He won't be in South Africa, but for my money the best North American soccer analyst is Bobby McMahon. Not sure if he's going to be Fox Soccer Channel everynight, though it will have Andy Gray*** beaming live from sunny Los Angeles.
McMahon is incredible. He seems to know everything. And he does it without shtick, a rarity, or an agenda either. If he's only on the Fox Soccer Report, so be it.
*** Safe to say Gray is probably treated the same way we treated John Madden toward the end, right? Granted, nobody has made a living impersonating Gray, though, have they?
ESPN might have the better access and flashier packages, but there isn't a guy on North American television I respect more than that banker from Winnipeg.
"We get the grant, we study the problem, we propose solutions. If they listen, they listen. If they don't, it still makes for great research. What we publish on this is gonna get a lot of attention. ... From who? ... From other researchers, academics. ... Academics?! What, they gonn' study your study? [chuckles and shakes head] When do this shit change?" -- Dr. Parenti/Bunny
Not to get all meta, but that's us, the Internet soccer nerds. We think we make a difference with our chorus of comments and blog posts and Tweets, but it means nothing. It's fun to consume and foster debate, but we don't affect the games.
Wait what did I just write...?
"Why the fuck didn't you tell me what was in that can?" -- Sobotka.
Here's a couple potential breakout players and sleeper teams this Cup may produce:
Mesut Ozil, Germany -- Pretty much a universal pick here across all publications, so now go watch the Werder Bremen attacker stink up the joint. Ozil is going to see a lot of the ball with Michael Ballack and Simon Rolfes out for Germany. If Germany do anything, it'll be because of his creative spark. Hope he and Bastian Schweinsteiger click, if you fancy Ze Germans!
Keisuke Honda, Japan -- He plays at CSKA, so I assume Russia and Japan have patched things up since their 1905 war. Second place is rip for the picking in Group E, with neither Denmark or Cameroon being the most dynamic teams in the world. Japan is pretty dull, too, but Honda gives them an air of unpredictability, to go along with an otherwise organized unit. In a way, he's the Japanese Clint Dempsey. Not sure if he's got any free-style skills, however.
Lucas Barrios, Paraguay -- In a move nobody outside of Jerry Seinfeld's South American traveling, coke sniffing accountant would care about, Barrios switched his nationality from Argentina to Paraguay, giving his new nation some much needed firepower in light of Salvatore Cabanas' gunshot wound to the head. At 6-foot-2, Barrios gives a solid Paraguay side a finisher, as noted by his 19 goals in 33 matches at Dortmund. Paraguay have been knocking at the last four World Cups, establishing themselves as No. 3 behind Brazil and Argentina in South America. Lumped in with Italy, New Zealand and Slovakia, it's time for a run, maybe to the quarters, though Paraguay would probably have to get past the Dutch in the Round of 16. Oof. That is unless they take advantage of an Italian team looking a shadow of its 2006 version.
Kwadwo Asamoah, Ghana --Udinese 21-year-old was a star at the African Cup of Nations in January. Without Michael Essien, his time will be now for the Black Stars, who are still going to be hard-pressed to score. If it's not Serbia, Ghana may make a run out of Group D. Asamoah and others are going to need to lift their games for that to happen -- perhaps Milan 20-year-old Dominic Adiyiah, who hasn't played since the Cup of Nations. Ghana are very solid but it's hard to see them scoring enough to escape the new Group of Death, especially with Sulley Muntari now nicked with an injury, too. In any other Group, Ghana would have been an extremely live underdog.
Alexis Sanchez, Chile -- Another 21-year-old from Udinese, go figure. This team was 15th in Serie A? Anyway, this kid is bound for a bigger club. Chile aren't talked about too much, but unless they finish atop Group H past Spain they're getting Brazil in the knockouts. In South American qualification Chile lost both times to Brazil, getting outscored 7-2 in the process, so yeah, Sanchez makes some money on a transfer to La Liga, but his team? Not to so much.
Simon Kjær, Denmark -- The Palermo defender should form a good backbone for the Danes along with Daniel Agger. The Danes aren't exactly dynamite this time around just a very comfortable side, that might need to do most of its work on set pieces to advance. Kjær's, only 21, should be due a move up the footballing ladder with a strong tournament. Couldn't, say, Bayern use a up-and-coming central defender with a strong pedigree?
"You can look him in the eye now. It don't matter who he is, or what he's done, you can look him right in the eye." -- Chris Partlow
Taken in context, not exactly fair to use this quote for Clint Dempsey, yet he has scored in the World Cup before.
Plus, he's made the leap this year at Fulham, moving from squad player to cult hero.
By whichever metric you want to Dempsey was an elite Premier League player this season, who settled right into his groove at Craven Cottage. More than just that, he's respected by the English media and players, who saw his super-terrific-amazing chip against Juventus this season.
We know what the rest of the U.S. is, or at least its ceiling.
Dempsey, you never know what's coming. If he's at his best, rushing toward the net and finishing off movements, the U.S. become a dangerous, live underdog.
My favorite part of Dempsey's game is he isn't afraid to be great, he's got self confidence, an attribute lacking a lot of times with the USMNT. If he turns the ball over every now and then, if it doesn't lead to a goal, so be it.
"One thieving politician trumps 22 dead bodies. Good to know." -- Daniels.
Since the draw and Alexi Lalas yelling out, "Nice...NICE" when the U.S. was paired against England, June 12 has became the de facto day of reckoning for the USMNT.
As we know, however, the games vs. Slovenia and Algeria will determine if Bob Bradley's motely crew of 23 makes it into the knockouts.
Beating England, or even taking a point, would be a morale booster, but it's not the mussin objective. Reaching the knockouts, is.
The only way to overreact to England is if 1) the U.S. wins, setting off a new (and first since 1994) wave of soccer patriotism across America 2) the U.S. gets thumped and screws up the goal differential.
"Are we still police?" -- McNulty
Marcelo Lippi is the "Silver Fox." Maybe he's as crazy as one too.
Lippi went back to the well for Italy, selecting pretty much the same team, minus Luca Toni and Francesco Totti, that triumped in 2006. Maybe the cast of 30-year-olds from Juventus have another month of world class soccer in them. Most likely they don't.
If Italy does anything, it'll be a lot of 1-0 results.
A buffalo mozzarella-level soft group (Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia) gives Italy hope to find its footing early and simmer into the knockouts.
But without a dynamic force outside of maybe Danielle de Rossi, where is the spark coming from? Andrea Pirlo, who's banged up? 32-year-old Antonio di Natale?
If you assail the top of the leaning tower of Pisa, you may be able to spot the warning signs and red flags swirling around Italy: 1) no speed 2) too many Juventus (seventh place in Serie A players) 3) expecting Fabio Canavaaaaarooooo to make the right defensive play every time like he didn in 2006 4) little, if any, upside.
Can't see Lippi catching lighting twice, even if the Italy players are Cup-tested.
Buy hey, Italy is one of two countries to repeat as World Cup champion. Granted it came in 1934 and 1938, under the specter of the Mussolini regime.
"Worrying about you would be like wondering if the sun gonna come up." -- Omar
Every time you think the past has nothing to do with the World Cup, Germany ends up finding itself in the semifinals again. In good years and in bad, there are the Germans, knockings away the hopes of an upstart and keeping out-dated WWII jokes alive for another four years.
This year, it would be an accomplishment if Joachim Löw manages to coax Germany deep in the tournament. The current bumper crop of German players we saw fall to Italy in the best game of the 2006 tournament -- the semifinal in Dortmund -- then make its way to the Euro 2008 final seems to be in an identity crisis.
It's most proven goal-scorer -- Miroslav Klose -- is old and out of form. Lukas Podolski was rotten at Colgne this year, too.
There's no proven keeper.
The defense looks spotty and slow of foot.
Hell, Löw had to naturalize Stuttgart's Cacau at the last minute.
What's the saying, though? In the end the Germans win?
There's probably enough young, fresh talent like Ozil, Toni Kroos, Mirko Marin and Thomas Mueller to keep the opponents on their heels. That said, the tournament probably hinges on the now central midfield play of Bastian Schweinsteiger.
If he takes the leap towards a mature, difference maker Germany will be around. If he looks like he did in Madrid for Bayern chasing the game against Inter Milan in the Champions League final, an upset -- perhaps by the U.S. -- looms in the Round of 16.
"N----, please. You gotta be fucking with me, right? You ain't never heard a station outside of Baltimore?" -- Shamrock
Ladies and gentlemen, start your vuvuzelas!
"Money ain't got no owners, only spenders." -- Omar
Okay, nefarious solution to making soccer popular in America? Allowing gambling on it since most games, including the World Cup take place overseas. It's a brilliant idea!
Here's a pretty fantastic compilation of what's on offer, you know, if this was legal.
Wouldn't soccer catch on if you could bet on the total number of throws-in the tournament or you could put money on which team fails the first drug test?
If you have the means to bet on the Cup, here's some stuff I like:
Golden boot: Robin van Persie (14-to-1). Darkhorse: Nilmar, who's at around the 25-to-1 range, or even as high as 40-to-1. Luis Fabiano is around 12-to-1. I'd take the flier on Nilmar first.
Lowest scoring group: Group B (6-to-1). Beyond Argentina, South Korea, Greece and Nigeria aren't lighting it up.
Best Young Player: Giovani Dos Santos (9-to-1). He's done it before at the U-17 World Cup.
Midfielder to score the most goals: Steven Gerrard (8-to-1). Kaka is the odds on favorite, but somebody's got to help Rooney, right? Xavi and Iniesta tend to cancel each other out, right?
Will an African Team make the Round of 16: No. (9-to-1). At this point there aren't any automatics. Worth a flier.
Team to concede the most goals: Honduras (9-to-1). North Korea and New Zealand are the odd-on favorites for this, but consider Honduras plays high-flying Spain and surprisingly potent Chile.
Team with the most yellow cards: Algeria, (25-to-1), worth a flier, if only for three games. Argetina at 12-to-1 isn't a bad bet either.
First ESPN anchor to make a Kaka joke: Bram Weinstein (no odds). This was the guy, after all, who asked Pele on the set of ESPNEWS what advice he'd give to LeBron James. Sadly, there aren't any odds on this. John Bucigross is a close second.
"The Cheese stands alone." -- Omar
Finally, my picks. I'm not buying into the thought this Cup plays out like 2002, where Turkey and South Korea reached the semifinals. If anything this plays out like a neutral ground tournament, the fact it's winter, too, should bode well for the European teams.
Group A: Mexico, France
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria (by default, need at least one African team to advance)
Group C: England, U.S.
Group D: Serbia, Germany
Group E: Netherlands, Denmark (Hardest second place, had Cameroon and Japan each here and deleted them. Flip-flopping.)
Group F: Paraguay, Italy
Group G: Brazil, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Chile
Round of 16: Mexico over Nigeria; England over Germany; U.S. over Serbia; Argentina over France; Netherlands over Italy; Brazil over Chile; Paraguay over Denmark; Spain over Portugal (Wanted to pick Portugual here, couldn't pull the trigger.)
Quarterfinals: Netherlands over Brazil; England over Mexico; Argentina over U.S.; Spain over Paraguay;
Semifinals: Netherlands over England; Argentina over Spain
Final: Netherlands over Argentina.
Call it the Dutch exorcising the demons of both 1978 and 1998 in the process. Admittedly, I'm rpobably setting myself up for failure here, but if the Dutch get past Brazil in the quarterfinals (the biggest match of the tournament), nobody on that side of the assumed bracket is going to stop them. It's a risky pick (heart vs. head), but I'll roll the dice even if it's relying heavily on injury-prone players.
Hup! Hup! Hup!
* * *
Play along here, on ESPN which you simply pick the group winners, or on Yahoo!, where it's game-by-game.
Lastly, sincerest thanks to anyone who read this and enjoyed it. Was a ton of work, but was worth it in the end. Hope it lives up to the Cup itself.
-- 30 --
Here's Part I and Part II.
"I love the first day, man. Everybody all friendly and shit." -- Namon
At least for the first week or so, or until another star players is taken out by injury, South Africa will be the story of the tournament.
The reporting should be all over the place. We'll get the gambit, from it was a great idea by Sepp Blatter to bring the Cup to Africa, to all the unsold seats, empty stadiums to how sport has helped the nation move past apartheid. Oh, and the Brits will be obsessed by all things vuvuzela.
Me? I'm a little bummed it was too cost prohibitive to travel to South Africa, despite winning the USMNT ticket lottery. Part of me is extremely grateful I'm not dealing with the hassles of traveling around the country and worrying about my personal safety. Someone I respect labeled downtown Jo-Burg as straight up "Blade Runner."
In the long run, my guess is the Cup goes off pretty much without a hitch. The lack of traveling fans will make FIFA think long and hard about the 2018 and 2022 bids. They're probably be some sort of bad incident away from the field, not sure what, but it's unfortunately inevitable.
The good thing is, with so many top notch U.S. voices over there we'll get a lot of perspectives to what's really going on over there.
And if you're a terrorist, is trying to create havoc at the World Cup game really the way to win the public over to your side? Don't most people love the World Cup, or at least that's what Bono has led me to believe.
As for the Bafana Bafana, don't be fooled by their nice run of results leading up to the Cup, including a win over Denmark. This squad will be outmatched, even with the hometown support, though it would make sense all things considered if they lodge a result of some kind vs. France.
"No shucking, no jiving, just good honest police work, how bout that Jimmy." -- Bunk
This, my friends, is the new Brazil. Dunga's Brazil. A Brazil devoid of flair, but high on grit, work rate and crew cuts#. Maybe the only classic Brazilian player in the mix in South Africa is Robinho.
# Who rocks the power crew better, Dunga or Ron Donald?
It's hard to believe Brazil's best players are probably outside defenders who play the same position -- Maicon and Dani Alves -- and it's most depth lines in defensive midfield types. (Gilberto Silva, Ramires, Felipe Melo, etc.)
Sure Kaka is still around, but that's about it.
The only question is if Luis Fabiano and Nilmar are enough to get the job done up top and who's playing at left back. Goal scoring? That'll come. But with a compact midfield, Brazil will need somebody on the left to complement Maicon to create some width. Converted forward Michel Batos appears to be the man. If that falls through, Elano is going to need to have a big tournament.
To beat Brazil, you're likely going to have to hope their heads aren't in the game, when France knocked them out in both the 1998 final or in 2006, the latter with an evergreen performance from Zinedine Zidane. Penciling them into the July 11 at Soccer City isn't crazy, but it's not as rock-solid as years passed.
It's worth mentioning Brazil won in 1994 and 2002 in American and Japan Korea, the last two-non European tournaments.
So as long as Dunga doesn't leave mid-tournament to film a sequel to "Clear and Present Danger," Brazil seems in good hands. Just keep the salsa music to a minimum.
"We're good at this Lester. In this town, we're as good as it gets. ... Natural police." -- McNulty/Lester
If you want to split hairs, the Champions League is probably the best soccer tournament on the planet. Aside from that weak team with an unpronounceable name from Cyprus that sneaks in as the 32nd team in the group stage, most teams are legit. Unlike the middling teams in the World Cup, club teams at least have the time to practice on a daily basis and build up some cohesion.
That said, the World Cup is no slouch, particularly once you get to the Round of 16 and quarterfinals. These are the best of the best.
To advance and win in the World Cup, you've got to be good. Hell, the probable quarterfinal between the Netherlands and Brazil might decide the entire tournament.
Remember, though, guys like Ronaldo and Messi aren't piling up and padding their goal totals against some over-matched defender from Tenerife, once we get deep into the tournament.
"Tomorrow ain't promised to no one." -- Marlo
Consider the generally agreed upon "Group of Death" -- Brazil, Portugal, Cote d'Ivoire and North Korea. One of the top three is going home early. Same thing with the intriguing Group D of Germany, Serbia, Ghana and Australia.
France is certainly no sure thing to advance from Group A.
The U.S. or England could stumble if they aren't at least careful in Group C. Just because the U.S. did great the the 2009 Confederations Cup also contested in South Africa doesn't make the 2010 World Cup an automatic.*
* Neither is assuming Jozy Altidore, is going to start each U.S. game and make an impact.
Sure favorites like Argentina, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain look like locks to get through the group, but you just never know. The impetus is on the favorite to make something happen. You've got to make the goals. This isn't the first rounds of the NCAA tournament where the higher seeds eventually win out on talent alone.
Just because you're the best team on paper, it doesn't necessarily mean the Cup is yours for the taking.
History backs this up, too. In 1954 Hungary's legendary side featuring Ference Pukas, lost to West Germany in Berne in the finals. And the Magical Magyars were up 2-0 inside the first eight minutes, no less. The Dutch, too, figured to be champions elect in 1974 and led West Germany 1-0 in that year's final in Munich on a second minute penalty.
You aren't handed the World Cup, that is, unless you get a tatted-up crazy man to induce a headbutt against your opponent's all-time greatest player in the waning stages of extra time.
"Don't matter who did what to who at this point. Fact is, we went to war and there ain't no turnin' back. I mean, shit, it's what war is, you know? Once you in it, you in it. If it's a lie, then we fight on that lie. But we gotta fight." -- Slim Charles**
Ever since the U.S. final 23-man roster was released I've been repeating this quote in my head time-after-time.
For me the fate of the U.S. boils down to defense. If the U.S. keeps its defensive shape and not allow acres of space for opponents at the fringes of the penalty area. If the defense -- with an 80 percent Onyewu or not -- can keep opponents to a goal or less, the rest of the team should contribute enough goals.
If this a "Dream Team" Bradley the Elder has assembled? Not really. It is what it is.
Like it or not, Jonathan Bornstein included, they're what the U.S. has down in South Africa. Bring on Germany, Serbia or Ghana -- the power of positive thinking.
** Who was better than Slim?
"Man say if you wanna shoot nails, this here the Cadillac, man. Meant Lexus but he ain’t know it. ... Hold a charge better? ... Man, fuck a charge, this here’s a gun powder activated, 27 caliber, full auto, no kickback, nail-throwing mayhem man. Shit right here’s tight." -- Snoop/Partlow
When it's rolling, Spain's tic-toc passing is hard to stop. If you go into a game with Spain and think you're beating Xavi, Xabi Alonso and Andres Iniesta in a possession game, you're lost. It's not happening. The U.S. at the Confederations Cup showed Spain could be beaten, but you have to convert nearly every game they give you.
Oh, and Fernando Torres, David Silva and David Villa up top aren't exactly slouches.
If you're playing against Spain and you are foolish passing the ball around in your own end or near midfield, Torres and Villa are lethal at intercepting your mistake and taking it the rest of the way.
As good as Spain is, something tells me they're not winning in South Africa. Call it a gut feeling -- not scientific, I know. We'll know more about Spain when we see its first game on June 16 vs. the Swiss. If Spain simply steps on the field and expects the other team to roll over, allowing them to shop for new hair bands during the match, it won't bode well.
Only once has the reigning Euro champ followed it up with a World Cup championship, with Germany going back-to-back in 1972-to-1974.
Complacency is a worrisome issue, typified by the sometimes laissez-faire approach from defender Sergio Ramos. Teams have had two years to work on a plan to stopping Spain, and the U.S. amazingly showed it could be do if you've got the elbow grease, plus some fortuitous bounces.
Spain will stroll and put up double-digit goals in their toilet paper-soft group (Swizterland, Chile, Honduras). Eventually they'll run into a team who stands toe-to-toe with them. You're blowing out the Top 8 by 4-0 scores, are you?
Put it this way, if Iniesta is pulling off what he did against Poland at the Cup, I'll eat my words. Words, I said, not my shoe like Werner Herzog.
(Consider this, Spain might run into Argentina if they both win their groups. Isn't Messi at his best playing mainly against Spanish opposition in La Liga? File the kernel away for early July.)
"How you expect to run with the wolves come night, when you spend all day sparrin wit' the puppies." -- Omar
For years and years, Mexico was the giant in CONCACAF. The big dog in a small pond, at least until the USMNT assumed that crown. Sorry, but Honduras looks like a three-and-out at this Cup.
Outside of the warm bosom of Mexico, or at least the toxified air of the Azteca, El Tri reverted back to being mere mortals.
Where we are standing ahead of the 2010 is somewhere in the middle. Javier Aguirre rescued the Mexicans from the stink Sven put them in midway through qualifying.
Mexico is looking more-and-more like a darkhorse after playing England tight and then beating Italy last week.
Two things are working in Mexico's favor: 1. Speed, in the forms of Gio Dos Santos, Andres Guardado, etc. 2. They're used to playing at altitude from matches at Azteca, don't discount this.
Plus with Cuauhtémoc Blanco holding things together at the ripe old age of 37, El Tri look dangerous. If they can win Group A ahead of France or Uruguay and avoid Argentina in the Round of 16, watch out. Some might say playing the hosts in the opening game is tough, but the pressure here is firmly on South Africa. Mexico can pounce, bank three quick points before 30 teams have even kicked off and be well on its way.
Remember, too, Aguirre and El Tri have played about 57 money-making matches in the build-up to the finals, beating New Zealand, North Korea, Chile and Italy, while looking very good in losses to Holland and England. Mexico might be the most game-ready nation in the field.
Hate saying this, but I do indeed like Mexico's mix of gritty domestic players and flashy, young Euro exports.
I'll never like Rafa Marquez, but hey, a high tide for CONCACAF rises all ships.
"A good church man is always up in everybody's shit. It's how we do." -- The Deacon.
He won't be in South Africa, but for my money the best North American soccer analyst is Bobby McMahon. Not sure if he's going to be Fox Soccer Channel everynight, though it will have Andy Gray*** beaming live from sunny Los Angeles.
McMahon is incredible. He seems to know everything. And he does it without shtick, a rarity, or an agenda either. If he's only on the Fox Soccer Report, so be it.
*** Safe to say Gray is probably treated the same way we treated John Madden toward the end, right? Granted, nobody has made a living impersonating Gray, though, have they?
ESPN might have the better access and flashier packages, but there isn't a guy on North American television I respect more than that banker from Winnipeg.
"We get the grant, we study the problem, we propose solutions. If they listen, they listen. If they don't, it still makes for great research. What we publish on this is gonna get a lot of attention. ... From who? ... From other researchers, academics. ... Academics?! What, they gonn' study your study? [chuckles and shakes head] When do this shit change?" -- Dr. Parenti/Bunny
Not to get all meta, but that's us, the Internet soccer nerds. We think we make a difference with our chorus of comments and blog posts and Tweets, but it means nothing. It's fun to consume and foster debate, but we don't affect the games.
Wait what did I just write...?
"Why the fuck didn't you tell me what was in that can?" -- Sobotka.
Here's a couple potential breakout players and sleeper teams this Cup may produce:
Mesut Ozil, Germany -- Pretty much a universal pick here across all publications, so now go watch the Werder Bremen attacker stink up the joint. Ozil is going to see a lot of the ball with Michael Ballack and Simon Rolfes out for Germany. If Germany do anything, it'll be because of his creative spark. Hope he and Bastian Schweinsteiger click, if you fancy Ze Germans!
Keisuke Honda, Japan -- He plays at CSKA, so I assume Russia and Japan have patched things up since their 1905 war. Second place is rip for the picking in Group E, with neither Denmark or Cameroon being the most dynamic teams in the world. Japan is pretty dull, too, but Honda gives them an air of unpredictability, to go along with an otherwise organized unit. In a way, he's the Japanese Clint Dempsey. Not sure if he's got any free-style skills, however.
Lucas Barrios, Paraguay -- In a move nobody outside of Jerry Seinfeld's South American traveling, coke sniffing accountant would care about, Barrios switched his nationality from Argentina to Paraguay, giving his new nation some much needed firepower in light of Salvatore Cabanas' gunshot wound to the head. At 6-foot-2, Barrios gives a solid Paraguay side a finisher, as noted by his 19 goals in 33 matches at Dortmund. Paraguay have been knocking at the last four World Cups, establishing themselves as No. 3 behind Brazil and Argentina in South America. Lumped in with Italy, New Zealand and Slovakia, it's time for a run, maybe to the quarters, though Paraguay would probably have to get past the Dutch in the Round of 16. Oof. That is unless they take advantage of an Italian team looking a shadow of its 2006 version.
Kwadwo Asamoah, Ghana --Udinese 21-year-old was a star at the African Cup of Nations in January. Without Michael Essien, his time will be now for the Black Stars, who are still going to be hard-pressed to score. If it's not Serbia, Ghana may make a run out of Group D. Asamoah and others are going to need to lift their games for that to happen -- perhaps Milan 20-year-old Dominic Adiyiah, who hasn't played since the Cup of Nations. Ghana are very solid but it's hard to see them scoring enough to escape the new Group of Death, especially with Sulley Muntari now nicked with an injury, too. In any other Group, Ghana would have been an extremely live underdog.
Alexis Sanchez, Chile -- Another 21-year-old from Udinese, go figure. This team was 15th in Serie A? Anyway, this kid is bound for a bigger club. Chile aren't talked about too much, but unless they finish atop Group H past Spain they're getting Brazil in the knockouts. In South American qualification Chile lost both times to Brazil, getting outscored 7-2 in the process, so yeah, Sanchez makes some money on a transfer to La Liga, but his team? Not to so much.
Simon Kjær, Denmark -- The Palermo defender should form a good backbone for the Danes along with Daniel Agger. The Danes aren't exactly dynamite this time around just a very comfortable side, that might need to do most of its work on set pieces to advance. Kjær's, only 21, should be due a move up the footballing ladder with a strong tournament. Couldn't, say, Bayern use a up-and-coming central defender with a strong pedigree?
"You can look him in the eye now. It don't matter who he is, or what he's done, you can look him right in the eye." -- Chris Partlow
Taken in context, not exactly fair to use this quote for Clint Dempsey, yet he has scored in the World Cup before.
Plus, he's made the leap this year at Fulham, moving from squad player to cult hero.
By whichever metric you want to Dempsey was an elite Premier League player this season, who settled right into his groove at Craven Cottage. More than just that, he's respected by the English media and players, who saw his super-terrific-amazing chip against Juventus this season.
We know what the rest of the U.S. is, or at least its ceiling.
Dempsey, you never know what's coming. If he's at his best, rushing toward the net and finishing off movements, the U.S. become a dangerous, live underdog.
My favorite part of Dempsey's game is he isn't afraid to be great, he's got self confidence, an attribute lacking a lot of times with the USMNT. If he turns the ball over every now and then, if it doesn't lead to a goal, so be it.
"One thieving politician trumps 22 dead bodies. Good to know." -- Daniels.
Since the draw and Alexi Lalas yelling out, "Nice...NICE" when the U.S. was paired against England, June 12 has became the de facto day of reckoning for the USMNT.
As we know, however, the games vs. Slovenia and Algeria will determine if Bob Bradley's motely crew of 23 makes it into the knockouts.
Beating England, or even taking a point, would be a morale booster, but it's not the mussin objective. Reaching the knockouts, is.
The only way to overreact to England is if 1) the U.S. wins, setting off a new (and first since 1994) wave of soccer patriotism across America 2) the U.S. gets thumped and screws up the goal differential.
"Are we still police?" -- McNulty
Marcelo Lippi is the "Silver Fox." Maybe he's as crazy as one too.
Lippi went back to the well for Italy, selecting pretty much the same team, minus Luca Toni and Francesco Totti, that triumped in 2006. Maybe the cast of 30-year-olds from Juventus have another month of world class soccer in them. Most likely they don't.
If Italy does anything, it'll be a lot of 1-0 results.
A buffalo mozzarella-level soft group (Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia) gives Italy hope to find its footing early and simmer into the knockouts.
But without a dynamic force outside of maybe Danielle de Rossi, where is the spark coming from? Andrea Pirlo, who's banged up? 32-year-old Antonio di Natale?
If you assail the top of the leaning tower of Pisa, you may be able to spot the warning signs and red flags swirling around Italy: 1) no speed 2) too many Juventus (seventh place in Serie A players) 3) expecting Fabio Canavaaaaarooooo to make the right defensive play every time like he didn in 2006 4) little, if any, upside.
Can't see Lippi catching lighting twice, even if the Italy players are Cup-tested.
Buy hey, Italy is one of two countries to repeat as World Cup champion. Granted it came in 1934 and 1938, under the specter of the Mussolini regime.
"Worrying about you would be like wondering if the sun gonna come up." -- Omar
Every time you think the past has nothing to do with the World Cup, Germany ends up finding itself in the semifinals again. In good years and in bad, there are the Germans, knockings away the hopes of an upstart and keeping out-dated WWII jokes alive for another four years.
This year, it would be an accomplishment if Joachim Löw manages to coax Germany deep in the tournament. The current bumper crop of German players we saw fall to Italy in the best game of the 2006 tournament -- the semifinal in Dortmund -- then make its way to the Euro 2008 final seems to be in an identity crisis.
It's most proven goal-scorer -- Miroslav Klose -- is old and out of form. Lukas Podolski was rotten at Colgne this year, too.
There's no proven keeper.
The defense looks spotty and slow of foot.
Hell, Löw had to naturalize Stuttgart's Cacau at the last minute.
What's the saying, though? In the end the Germans win?
There's probably enough young, fresh talent like Ozil, Toni Kroos, Mirko Marin and Thomas Mueller to keep the opponents on their heels. That said, the tournament probably hinges on the now central midfield play of Bastian Schweinsteiger.
If he takes the leap towards a mature, difference maker Germany will be around. If he looks like he did in Madrid for Bayern chasing the game against Inter Milan in the Champions League final, an upset -- perhaps by the U.S. -- looms in the Round of 16.
"N----, please. You gotta be fucking with me, right? You ain't never heard a station outside of Baltimore?" -- Shamrock
Ladies and gentlemen, start your vuvuzelas!
"Money ain't got no owners, only spenders." -- Omar
Okay, nefarious solution to making soccer popular in America? Allowing gambling on it since most games, including the World Cup take place overseas. It's a brilliant idea!
Here's a pretty fantastic compilation of what's on offer, you know, if this was legal.
Wouldn't soccer catch on if you could bet on the total number of throws-in the tournament or you could put money on which team fails the first drug test?
If you have the means to bet on the Cup, here's some stuff I like:
Golden boot: Robin van Persie (14-to-1). Darkhorse: Nilmar, who's at around the 25-to-1 range, or even as high as 40-to-1. Luis Fabiano is around 12-to-1. I'd take the flier on Nilmar first.
Lowest scoring group: Group B (6-to-1). Beyond Argentina, South Korea, Greece and Nigeria aren't lighting it up.
Best Young Player: Giovani Dos Santos (9-to-1). He's done it before at the U-17 World Cup.
Midfielder to score the most goals: Steven Gerrard (8-to-1). Kaka is the odds on favorite, but somebody's got to help Rooney, right? Xavi and Iniesta tend to cancel each other out, right?
Will an African Team make the Round of 16: No. (9-to-1). At this point there aren't any automatics. Worth a flier.
Team to concede the most goals: Honduras (9-to-1). North Korea and New Zealand are the odd-on favorites for this, but consider Honduras plays high-flying Spain and surprisingly potent Chile.
Team with the most yellow cards: Algeria, (25-to-1), worth a flier, if only for three games. Argetina at 12-to-1 isn't a bad bet either.
First ESPN anchor to make a Kaka joke: Bram Weinstein (no odds). This was the guy, after all, who asked Pele on the set of ESPNEWS what advice he'd give to LeBron James. Sadly, there aren't any odds on this. John Bucigross is a close second.
"The Cheese stands alone." -- Omar
Finally, my picks. I'm not buying into the thought this Cup plays out like 2002, where Turkey and South Korea reached the semifinals. If anything this plays out like a neutral ground tournament, the fact it's winter, too, should bode well for the European teams.
Group A: Mexico, France
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria (by default, need at least one African team to advance)
Group C: England, U.S.
Group D: Serbia, Germany
Group E: Netherlands, Denmark (Hardest second place, had Cameroon and Japan each here and deleted them. Flip-flopping.)
Group F: Paraguay, Italy
Group G: Brazil, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Chile
Round of 16: Mexico over Nigeria; England over Germany; U.S. over Serbia; Argentina over France; Netherlands over Italy; Brazil over Chile; Paraguay over Denmark; Spain over Portugal (Wanted to pick Portugual here, couldn't pull the trigger.)
Quarterfinals: Netherlands over Brazil; England over Mexico; Argentina over U.S.; Spain over Paraguay;
Semifinals: Netherlands over England; Argentina over Spain
Final: Netherlands over Argentina.
Call it the Dutch exorcising the demons of both 1978 and 1998 in the process. Admittedly, I'm rpobably setting myself up for failure here, but if the Dutch get past Brazil in the quarterfinals (the biggest match of the tournament), nobody on that side of the assumed bracket is going to stop them. It's a risky pick (heart vs. head), but I'll roll the dice even if it's relying heavily on injury-prone players.
Hup! Hup! Hup!
Play along here, on ESPN which you simply pick the group winners, or on Yahoo!, where it's game-by-game.
Lastly, sincerest thanks to anyone who read this and enjoyed it. Was a ton of work, but was worth it in the end. Hope it lives up to the Cup itself.
-- 30 --
Labels: 2010 world cup, Bill Simmons, bob bradley, Brasil, clint dempsey, cristiano ronaldo, Didier Drogba, dunga, fernando torres, Italy, Michael Bradley, Soccer, Spain, The Wire, USMNT, Wayne Rooney
Awesome stuff as always.
Do you have a planned schedule of posts for the next month? Or just whenever you feel like it?
I'll try to attempt one...
"Ain't nothin wrong with me. I'm out here gettin stuff done. You up in some house somewhere playin Michael's little bitch." - Kenard
Now I can't weave the quote into my thought as well as Mike does... but I was looking for a quote to capture the feeling of an Argentina or Portugal fan toward their star player. Two of the top 3 players in the world were basically MIA in qualifying for this WC.
The Sports Illustrated piece on Messi from around a month ago really opened my eyes to how he identifies more as Spanish than Argentinian. There are pockets of Argentina that don't worship him. A lot of people argue the reason for Messi's drop off from club to country is he doesn't have Xavi or Iniesta feeding him. I'd accept that if Argentina didn't have 3-4 other attacking players on the field so dangerous that defenses can't just key in on Messi. 4 goals(18 games) in qualifying vs. 34 (in 35) in La Liga.
For Cristiano, I can sorta accept the double-teamed excuse. Without Nani now, you can stick a defensive mid and outside back on him (like Inter did to Messi) and take him out of game. Still, 33 goals for Real and 0 for Portugal would drive me crazy if I was a Port. fan.
As a USMNT fan I can't even began to imagine anger over club production vs. country. But for these two, I can't put you even near a Zidane greatest level until you produce for country at the biggest stage.
"Worryin bout you be worrying be like wonderin if the sun gonna come up"
-Omar to Brother Mouzone in one of the best opening scenes
good catch. thanks.
got my wires (no pun intended) crossed.
I'll be there for some knock-out round games, here's to not getting mugged.
Well done, Cardillo. Saw you got a shout-out in the ESPN WC book. Look forward to seeing how this sucka unfolds.
Long time reader (at least 4 years) 1st time commenter...those last three posts were truly brilliant stuff.