That's On Point: The Web Site

From the dreaded "You Snooze, You Lose" department -- my planned essay for the week leading into my dreadfully ill-fated Premier League picks.

For the last week or two I'd been bouncing around an idea in my head (truth) how the NBA was becoming about as competitive as the Premier League -- or other major soccer leagues. In short, in a given season at best five or six of the NBA's 30 teams can realistically say they can win an championship.

And, of course, on Wednesday the Wall Street Journal beat me to the punch ... and prolly a bunch of other, quicker, smarter, more erudite folks too..

Alas.

One key difference to the swinging competitive balance in the NBA vs. the EPL is that luck certainly plays, or at least played, a much bigger factor in success in basketball thanks to the draft. The San Antonio Spurs lucked in Tim Duncan. The Cleveland Cavaliers got lucky with the No. 1 pick, taking LeBron James and becoming relevant for the first time in franchise history, up until last July and that highwater mark in ESPN history "The Decision."

With basketball, too, one or two players swing the competitive balance, whereas in the Premier League it's the overall financial advantage and clout swung around by the top five or six teams which set them apart from the chaff, with their ability to assemble a star-sudden, deep roster. One or two players make a difference, but we might see Manchester United win the Prem crown this season, just two years removed from losing (arguably) the world's best player, Cristiano Ronaldo.

Contrast to the fate of the Cavs post-LeBron's decision to sign with Miami. The club might as well pack it in. Barring winning the NBA Lottery and landing another generational talent the Cavs(*) are doing anything productive beyond serving as the nightly opponent for the 29 other teams in the league. Is maybe in a few years fighting for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and the right to lose the top team worth devoting your time an energy (or disposable income) as a fan?

(*) The other night I was talking to a girl at the bar and she casually mentioned how she was a Cavs fan. My immediate reaction, "sorry." Then she went on about how she likes Anderson Varejao since his hair looks like Sideshow Bob. Suffice to say, the names Mark Price, Larry Nance and Craig Ehlo probably don't draw too much water for her.

Not to sound like a depressed, 1995 Havard-era Rivers Cuomo, but why would you bother rooting for a team like the Cavs, or other NBA also rans? Isn't it a fruitless pursuit? Granted, I'm not Bill Simmons -- aka the official NBA historian -- but aside from the anomaly that was the 2005 Detroit Pistons, the NBA title is almost exclusively won by a team featuring some combination of: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Larry Bird.

In the NBA, the cream ultimately rises to the top, especially in a best-of-seven playoff series.

Long story short, the NBA is a star, dare we say, superstar driven league. If you don't have one, thanks for playing. Keep your fingers crossed the ping pong balls fall your way for the next Blake Griffin.(*) In the meantime, keep charging $200 for courtside seats, pumping your arena family-friendly hip-hop jams during the run of play, firing hot dogs into the upper deck and, maybe, have a mascot on a trampoline jump through a fiery hoop. If you're very courageous, hire Whoopi Goldberg to coach for a few games to drum up interest.

(*) BLAKEBLAKEBLAKEBLAKEBLAKEBLAKEBLAKEBLAKEBLAKEBLAKEBLAKE. Sorry Simmons hijacked my blog for a second... Are we sure it's a good idea for a franchise player to be jumping over cars? A franchise player with a history of knee injuries. It is, after all, fantastic.

Now this is about the place where I'm going to blow your mind with a Premier League or soccer-related corollary. Prepare to be a little let down, since it's not a direct connection aside from the fact that, yeah, like the NBA the Premier League -- or most major league's around the world -- can only be won by a small cabal of clubs, as noted by this list:


Selected variance of title-winning soccer clubs across the globe in the last 30 years:

* England (Premier Era, post-1992): Manchester United (11), Chelsea (3), Arsenal (3), Blackburn Rovers 1.

* Spain (La Liga, post 1980): Real Madrid (11), Barcelona (11); Athletic Bilbao (2), Valencia (2), Real Socidad (2), Atletico Madrid (1), Deportivo (1) ... (Note: Only Valencia has broken up the Real/Barca dominance since the turn of the century.)

* Italy (Serie A, post 1980): Juventus (9), AC Milan (7), Inter (6), Roma (2), Napoli (2), Lazio (1), Sampdoria (1), Verona (1).

* Germany (Bundesliga, post 1980): Bayern Munich (17), Werder Bremen (3), Stuttgart (3), Hamburg (2), Borussia Dortmund (2) Kaiserslautern (2), Wolfsburg (1).

The "big" leagues are actually more democratic than the rest of the Europe, for example.

* Turkey (Super Lig, post 1959): Fenerbahçe (17), Galatasaray (17), Beşiktaş (13), Trabzonspor (6) Bursaspor (1) ... (Note, Trabzonspor only won the league once in last 30 years and Bursapor won its first title last season.)

* Scotland (SPL era, since 1998-99): Rangers (6), Celtic (6).

* Netherlands (Eredivisie, since 1980): PSV (14), Ajax (10), Feyenoord (3), AZ (2), Twente (1).

It should come as no surprise most of these leagues look a lot like the NBA Championship list post 1980, which reads: Lakers (9), Bulls (6), Spurs (4), Celtics (4), Pistons (3), Rockets, (2), 76ers (1), Heat (1). Also noteworthy, in that span the NBA has had repeat (or three-peat) champions seven times.

Club soccer is no stranger to "super clubs." Players are attracted to the history of a club, say Manchester United, and the ability to win trophies, offsetting however miserable the weather might be in the city most of the year. Good players want to play alongside other greats, throw in a dash of glitz or glamor and the lesser run teams are resigned their fates, fighting it out for the table scraps. The massive weekly wages the big clubs can afford -- or at least write off Michel Platini be damned -- don't hurt, either.

The fear with soccer that in the immediate future we could have a system where there are only about five or six clubs that "matter" across the entire world, with everyone else -- likely due to satellite television and those rights -- relegating everyone else to also-ran status. Sadly, writing a blog like this about European soccer from the comfort of America is contributing to this.

Think back to Mohamed Diame's comments about Wigan in January: "The truth about life in Wigan is there is nothing to do. It is a crappy place. The town is tiny and there is no atmosphere."

This already seems to be the underlying attitude for most would-be NBA free agents. So what if all they want to do is sit around all day and play video games, they still want that illusion playing in a happening spot where a music video might be filmed.

The NBA is in the midst of this change, with the "superstar" players all trying to align themselves, mostly around the cities that seem to have the best night life: New York, Miami and Los Angeles. At least, in theory, there is an NBA salary cap and only 29 other destinations for free agents, so teams in unfancied places like Minnesota or Sacramento can pay comparative salaries to players, or at least overpay to keep their stars, though it didn't do much good with the Denver Nuggets are Carmelo Anthony.

All this rolls around to my big question, unless you live in close proximity to a place like Cleveland, why root for the Cavs? Even if you do, with cable and satellite, the internet and everything else aside from the idea of civic pride is there a reason to root for a team essentially consigned to failure?(*) If you're like most younger fans, you might simply root for a player or set of players who you like to use in "NBA 2K," or just watch the amended nightly dunk highlights on "Sportscenter" anyways.

(*) It's not like a mohawked Charlie Sheen is going to ride into town and save the Cavs like what happened with the Indians almost 20 years ago. Oh wait.

Better example, if you happen to live in Northwestern England, how many dominoes need to fall in order to find yourself supporting Wigan Athletic? At least with a club like Wigan or other less glamorous English teams, you have some compelling local rivalries, the FA and Carling Cups, the nail-biting, nervous fun of relegation. It's barely more tangible than rooting for your favorite also-ran NBA team to score a certain amount of points to win free grease-laden treats from Taco Bell. at least, though, it's something. Wigan, in this instance, at least have some of the cheapest tickets in all of England. There are worse things than going to the DW Stadium to kill three, four hours on a Saturday, right?

The thing is, a person like me sitting on my couch in Connecticut or Calgary or China or any other place that begins with "C" isn't exactly going to run out and root for a team like Wigan or West Brom, now are we? If people across the globe don't care about the Memphis Grizzlies or New Jersey Nets or Minnesota Timberwolves, it's not the end of the world, considering the NBA has a salary cap -- for now -- and some basic level revenue sharing. The team will continue to just simply, exist, popping up like Puxatawney Phil once a year for the NBA Draft Lottery during halftime of a playoff game.

Meanwhile, the massive global fanbases of clubs like Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal set them further and further apart. Chelsea has it both ways, a super rich Russian owner and a commitment to growing the club's brand globally. Manchester City has the money, but the one area they can't buy their way into is the hearts and minds of the global audience. A story for another day.

The also-rans of the EPL do have marginally more to play for than their NBA brethren, assuming you still value the Europa League. What they lack is financial security. When the New Orelans Hornets owners went broke, the NBA bought the team. When that happens in England, the FA docks you 10 or 15 points, dooming you to relegation and eventual destruction. In a closed system, if you can tolerate the red ink, you can just go existing ... not the case in the promotion/relegation world of soccer, which has less financial safety nets to protect its clubs.

What strikes me as odd is that in the Premier League, in theory, you'd have a better chance for an outsider to challenge for the title as opposed to the NBA, yet most non-elite clubs seems resigned to accepting their fates as midtable or worse.

Think about it, the player pool across the globe for soccer players is much deeper than that of the NBA for basketball players. A couple savvy moves, coupled by a manager with a little tactical gusto and it shouldn't be that difficult. It's not like you have a salary cap(*) to worry about. The bigger part of the equation is a belief (and funds) it can be done. Ambition doesn't, apparently, grow on trees in England.

This season, in earnest, we've seen a team like Blackpool throw caution into the wind and play attack-minded soccer. The Tangerines won't win the title, but at least they're trying to do something positive.

On the other hand NBA teams face an uphill battle, unless they have one, two or even three elite level players. Those, in fact, do not grow on trees. Yet teams are more than happy selling their fans on chances to maybe grab a No. 6 seed, making salary-cap killing, lateral moves in the process. If you can't win it all in the NBA you might as well win 10 games and try to win the lottery year after year. There is absolutely no incentive for mediocrity in the NBA, unless you like writing multi-million dollar million checks to guys like Elton Brand, Gilbert Arena, Travis Outlaw, and DeSagana Diop. Stern wouldn't like it, but why not just pay everyone the minimum unless you think you can actually contend? Why, as an owner, bleed dollars to -- at best -- lose in the first round of the playoffs?

Either way, this sporting glass ceiling isn't fun for anyone.

No wonder Kobe Bryant claims to be a Barcelona fan.

Might as well all be front runners.

Round 28 Picks:

Another weird weekend of fixtures, thanks to the Carling Cup final.

Saturday:

* Everton v. Sunderland -- (Live, FSC+, 10 a.m.) Admittedly, this isn't the most elegant way to frame it, but Everton ousting Chelsea in a memorable FA Cup clash was a much-needed injection of smack into the arms of the Toffees. The euphoria of stopping Chelsea -- the very team that beat Everton in the 2009 Cup final -- does a good job of clouding the reality at hand, the club is only three points above the relegation zone, albeit with four clubs sandwiched between the Tofs and 18th place. Hard to believe a team with the quality that David Moyes has assembled only has six wins in 26 matches. While Everton has to search couch cushions for a few loose pennies to find funds for unknown Greek teenagers, Sunderland spent in excess of $30 million on new guys, putting the club's year-end losses near $40 million. It's good ambition by Sunderland, but you wonder is seventh place -- where the Black Cats currently sit -- as good as its going to get in the interim? At least Asamoah Gyan is worth buying a ticket to see play. ... Everton 1, Sunderland 0

* Newcastle United v. Bolton -- Remarkable that noted English hotheads Joey Barton and Kevin Nolan have yet to be sent off this season, while the relatively unknown Ivorian Chieck Tiote (now signed through 2017, for whatever soccer contracts are worth) has eight yellow cards. One thing to note about Newcastle, the club has given up 11 of its 33 league goals in the final 15 minutes, perhaps attributed to a smallish squad and fatigue in players like Jose Enrique, Fab Colocinni and Jonas Gutierrez playing almost every minute of every match for the club? That's nothing compared to Bolton, the league's most compact side in terms of lineups. Gary Cahill, Zat Knight, Paul Robinson, Stu Holden, Kevin Davies and Johan Elmander have each logged well over 2,000 Premier League minutes this year. For whatever it's worth, Bolton have allowed 13 goals in the final 15 minutes, but also scored 12 in the same period. ... Newcastle United 3, Bolton 1

* Wigan Athletic v. Manchester United -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) If this isn't the Washington Generals vs. the Harlem Globetrotters of the Prem, what is? Unrelated note, it's high time that Hugo Rodellega makes a cameo on "Scooby Doo," if not, then "Futurama." ... Wigan 0, Manchester United 2

* Wolves v. Blackpool -- Be wary of clubs in yellow or orange in the Premier League. Watford was promoted a few years ago, and the yellow-clad hornets went right back down. Hull City, with it's mustard Tiger kits, lasted a year, then went back to the Championship. Wolves, with their orange-y home shirts appear to be following the path of Hull. And Blackpool? Maybe the Tangerines survive since their shirts are a shade of neon. Look, you can't find this sort of inside info any place else, can you? ... Wolves 3, Blackpool 2

* Aston Villa v. Blackburn Rovers -- Aston Villa's season is pretty much on the line this week, with an FA Cup date on March 2 with Manchester City. Problem is, Villa is only three points above the drop zone. How does Gerard Houllier manage it? Seems like this might be a chance for Michael Bradley to get a start. (U-S-A!) Villa is weird. Lots of parts you like, but as a whole, underwhelming. Give the club some time, right? ... As for Blackburn, awesome to read reports that Venky's -- the Indian Chicken Consortium that owns the club -- wants to buy either Kaka, Elano, Robino or Neymar. Yep. Sounds great. Actually, this might make sense since Robinho is destined to surpass his current AC Milan teammate -- Zlatan Ibrahimovic -- for the most transfer revenue generated by one player. Robinho only trails the Swede $188,000,000 to $124,000,000. I'm sure someone is stupid enough to break the bank for Robinho, who just might be the most overrated player in the world, or have the most inflated reputation compared to actual productivity. ... Aston Villa 2, Blackburn 0

Sunday:

* West Ham United v. Liverpool -- (Live, FSC, 8:30 a.m.) Of the Premier League "W" clubs in the relegation scrum, something tells me West Ham survives. Don't know why, other than with Scott Parker, Robert Green and corpse of Mathew Upson, there's a decent amount of professional pride out there. Maybe the return of Thomas Hitzlsberger and new arrival Demba Ba give Avram Grant enough pieces to tinker with. Liverpool have played 12 matches in 2011, scoring more than one goal in four games. In other words, get well soon Andy Carroll. ... West Ham 2, Liverpool 1

* Manchester City v. Fulham -- (Live, ESPN2, 10 a.m.) City aren't winning the title that much is clear. Is this squad motivated enough to retain a place in the top four and gain a Champions League berth for next season? City is only two points ahead of Spurs and four with Chelsea, which has a game in hand. Who is the most motivated by gaining the Champions League for the first time? Roberto Mancini? The players? The owners? The fans? Fulham has been a much better team in 2011, as it gets healthier and less reliant on Clint Dempsey every week. Fulham don't set the imagination alight, but it's a very competent side which gives a solid effort every time. ... Manchester City 1, Fulham 0

* (Bonus) Carling Cup Final -- Arsenal v. Birmingham City -- (Live, FSC, 11 a.m.) Arsenal ... going on six years without a trophy. Hard to believe. Harder to believe Birmingham manages to fend off the Gunners, even without Cesc Fabregas and Theo Walcott. The Gunners are better, significantly, especially with Samir Nasri back in the mix and young English "Bull-Lion" Jack Wilshere. Unless they really screw the pooch on defending set plays, hard to see them not strolling in this one. As an outsider, I'm not trying to jinx Arsenal.. The Gunners are that much better than Birmingham, which plays hard but can't score in open play. I'm pretty sure though, every Arsenal fan is expecting a replay of Martin Tyler's horror-tackle on Eduardo from 2008. Expect that to be mentioned during the broadcast, oh, 400 times. ... Arsenal 3, Birmingham City 1

Monday:

* Stoke City v. West Brom -- (Live, FSC+, 3 p.m.) Frankly, stunned ESPN isn't breaking into his mid-afternoon NASCAR roundtable for this game. America demands Ryan Shawcross and Chris Brunt! ... Stoke City 2, West Brom 1

Last round(s): 3-10
Season: 113-153

Labels: EPL, EPL picks, NBA, Soccer