Odds are not even someone who's logged over 1,000 hours on "Championship Manager," owns a different soccer shirt for every day of the month, or rearranges their schedule around live game action from around the globe -- aka a genuine soccer nerd -- raised an eyebrow when then-West Bromwich Albion manager Roberto di Matteo signed Peter Odemwingie in August from Lokomotiv Moscow for a little under $2 million.
Me? Pretty sure it warranted a "pfffft," or maybe a "really" followed by some pithy, dismissive comment.
A Uzbek-born, Nigeria international? Making an impact on the Premier League? At a nothing club like West Brom? What are you going me next? That Donald Trump is going to be the next President of the United States? (Beat that for a bon mot, Jon Stewart!)
Here we are in April, and there Odemwingie stands with 12 goals, the first player in West Brom history to score double-digits since the Premier League was hatched in 1992. You could make an argument the Nigerian forward has been as important as any other summer signing during the 2010-11 season, with the Baggies securely in 11th place and looking at Premier League status again. Granted, this is a classic 20/20 second guess that nobody saw coming. Most probably figured he'd be as useless at West Brom as fellow Nigerian international, Kanu, was a few years ago during their previous stint in the top flight.
By that token, who saw Chicharito becoming an instant cult hero -- and damn useful player -- for Manchester United within minutes of his debut? Lest we forget the Little Pea cost Sir Alex Ferguson barely $9 million to
Better yet, where would Tottenham have been this season if they didn't add defender William Gallas on a free transfer, with the seemingly endless defensive injuries at White Hart Lane?
If Wigan Athletic stay up, some of the credit goes to Roberto Martinez signing Antolin Alcaraz for a pittance. You could go club by club and find an unheralded, or unwanted addition making an impact. The entire Stoke City team has that vibe. Everton's David Moyes works almost exclusive this way, finding goals from lower league star Jermaine Beckford this season, when everyone else at Goodison Park got hurt.
If this year's Premier League season is the start of a new era, an era of increased parity -- sporting at least -- with the bottom teams capable of handing the powerhouses Big FourFive a game on a given weekend, one of the reasons has to be financial sanity, with teams making moves based on trying to win games, not sell replica shirts. It seems the pursuit of big names, or the typical post-World Cup flops was kept to a minimum. Teams seemed to have valued financial sanity over splashy headlines. Solid, week-in, week-out professionals seem to have more value than flashy imports who may or may not give you a moment of brilliance every now and then.
Yes, having written that you're immediately going to mention the GDP of Equatorial Guinea that was spent on Fernando Torres/Andy Carroll on the final transfer day in January 2011. Or than Manchester City dropped a huge chunk of change to bring Edin Dzeko into Eastlands from Wolfsburg. That did happen. We've all had our fun laughing on Torres, too. That, to me, seems like an outlier. A freak moment of insanity from billionaire Roman Abramovich and a player who's head is in the clouds.
Nothing is going to stop the top clubs with their seemingly endless cash reserves from spending big money on trophy players. It's the fact the middle tier teams finally seem content to live within their means, buying useful players who don't mind playing for the 10th placed team in the League.
Naturally, a easy counter to this line of thinking is, if Arsene Wenger plopped down a few more ducets and bought somebody other than Laurent Koscielny and Sebastian Squilacci, maybe Arsenal is in first place with five games left to play. Then again, Arsenal's malaise is probably comes down to a lack of accountability on the team, which is something you can't exactly buy at the corner shop.
Clearly there isn't a magic formula to building a winning soccer league. Did anyone expect for all the billions spent by Manchester City on high-priced acquisition after high-priced acquisition, that it's best bit of business might have been the low-key, low-money move for Adam Johnson last January? Sometimes you have to get lucky when you roll the dice in the transfer market.
That said, when teams can find bargains, be it unknown free transfers, or plucking players from lower or backwater leagues, it tends to pay off. It might only for one season, but these little bits of savvy investment can only help a club.
Just look this week at MLS, which with its single-entity, closed-salary structure is the diametric opposite of the Premier League or most other big time soccer leagues in the world. Even it had to deal with trying to assess proper value on U.S. international Benny Feilhaber, through it's frankly byzantine and outdated allocation process.
Would any team in the league want to add a creative midfielder like Feilhaber to their roster? Sure. When he costs close to $400,000 yearly, that desire tends to drop when you're dealing with a rigid salary cap. With MLS so transparent about it's player salaries, in comparison to the rest of the world (*) the individual franchises are better served to be bargain bid pickers, finding a player maybe who's 70 percent of the player of Feilhaber, yet costs 10 percent of his yearly salary cap figure.
(*) There's been a lot of news this week of player salaries. It's still not like North American sports, where you can dial up Google and have a team-by-team balance sheet. Always fascinated by clubs around the world try to hide this data like the Holy Grail.
When you can't simply drop $30 million to bring in a guy like, say, Luis Suarez you have to mind the purse strings, on either side of the Atlantic, and look for value in places you wouldn't naturally think. Russia, Columbia, the Argentine second division. With sheer amount of people playing soccer across the globe, there are bound to be some unknown diamonds lying in the rough.
And when the odds are stacked against you like they are for a modest club like West Brom, you have to roll the dice on a guy like Odemwingie and hope you pull a diamond rather than a cubic zirconia.
Easier said than done.
Game On?:
For, scientific estimate, the 4,321 since I started writing here on this little ol' slice of Internets, I made a mistake. The latest was laughing off a write-up labeling Chelsea's "faint" title hopes as a major reach.
Turns out, it probably isn't a reach at all. Chelsea, even after being knocked out in the Champions League quarterfinals, might have some of its swagger back.
Manchester United, six points clear of the Blues, have to play both Chelsea and Arsenal in their final five matches. Could Chelsea be waiting there to pick up if Sir Alex's boys falter? The schedule for Chelsea isn't terrible: vs. West Ham; vs. Spurs; at United; vs. Newcastle United and finally at Everton.
Best case scenario for Chelsea, Arsenal beats Manchester United on May 1, Wayne Rooney breaks his foot against another German team (this time Schalke) in the Champions League and then the Blues go to Old Trafford and beat the Red Devils.
The trick here, for Chelsea, is United's pesky four-goal advantage in goal difference, which could again come into play. Crazy to think United surpassed Chelsea when the Blues won their first five league games by an aggregate score of 21-1.
Saturday:
* Manchester United v. Everton -- (Live, ESPN, 7:45 a.m.) Weird, how Everton's season looked done-and-dusted after losing to Reading in the FA Cup in early March. Since that exit the Toffees are unbeaten, going 5-1-0, scoring at least two goals in all but one match. How David Moyes does it? We might never find out. It must have something do with the planetary alignments. Maybe that new Zodiac sign. Can that run continue at Old Trafford? A healthy, in-form Leon Osman helps. Is he and the rest of Moyes' Misfits enough to stop a seething United, coming off that scoreless midweek draw with Newcastle? This game did end 3-3 with that memorable, furious pair of stoppage time goals from Tim Cahill and Mikel Arteta in September. United probably find a way, but it comes late. ... United 2, Everton 1
* Tottenham v. West Bromwich Albion -- Typical Tottenham in the offing? Rebound from a 3-1 deficit to Arsenal, to draw 3-3 and follow it up with a limp display against a pretty decent West Brom team? If there's one immediate, direct way to improve Spurs for next season, it might be in goal. Not sure you can live with Gomes making crazy saves and last minute penalty kick denials, when at the same time he'll allow the softest goals you'll ever see. Problem is, it's not like there'd be a line out the door to buy Gomes, so the club is probably stuck with him for a bit. ... Spurs 2, West Brom 0
* Wolves v. Fulham -- Is this a must-win for Wolves? Probably not, but it's close. The weird thing for Mick McCarthy's team is that it's only played four games since the start of March. On the one hand, it allows the team to get over any minor injuries, but it's also hard to stay sharp when you're barely seeing live-game action. It helps explain why Wolves have been outscored 7-1 this month. After this match against Fulham and next week's with Stoke, Wolves play an easy schedule. The big thing here for Fulham is to avoid any retaliation from reckless Wolves tackles, since the Cottagers are still on track for a Europa League place under the Fair Play rule. In a remarkable stat, Aaron Hughes has started all 32 league games for Fulham without being booked. He clearly must invite the team over for daily tea and biscuits served in dainty, fine china cups and such. A true gentleman, it seems. ... Wolves 1, Fulham 1
* Liverpool v. Birmingham City -- (Live, FSC, 10 a.m.) Open question for Liverpool, if you're not going to try out academy youngsters like Jack Robinson and John Flanagan in games like this, with really nothing tangible at stake for the club, why have an academy? This is September baseball time for Liverpool, empty the 40-man roster and see if you've got anything. I'd think Kenny Dalglish realizes this fact. These two guys in particular played most of the game last week and held mighty Arsenal scoreless for nearly 100 minutes. As for Birmingham, figure Brum Tug Tuggernaut stick around in the Prem if only because three teams are worse off then them. ... Liverpool 2, Birmingham City 0
* Aston Villa v. Stoke City -- (Live, FSC+, 10 a.m.) Villa is now 10th, which is probably about right for a team with that much individual talent ... though apparently the toil of a relegation scrap put Gerard Houllier in the hospital, costing the French manager the rest of the season. Zut Alors! The declining health of Houllier opens up another set of questions for Villa, which already had to worry about who's sticking around for next season, already. Who stays for the 2011-12 season is open to debate, with Ashley Young and Stewart Downing probably on the wish list for bigger fish. Stoke probably need one more win to finally put any relegation fears to rest and focus completely on the FA Cup final in May. Question, here which of these two clubs are better poised to make a move up the table long term? You might have to say Stoke. Wouldn't Charlie Adam be a perfect fit in Tony Pulis' midfield? ... Aston Villa 2, Stoke City 0
* Blackpool v. Newcastle United -- Pity for Blackpool, turning from tangerines into pumpkins at the wrong time. Without question, Joey Barton has the most relevant haircut in the Premier League. His buzzcut has a lot of buzz. ... Blackpool 2, Newcastle United 2
* Sunderland v. Wigan Athletic -- Nine times out of 10, you'd think Wigan Athletic coming to town would be a good thing. If we've learned anything, Wigan seem to relish the spoiler role and would certainly love to heap more misery on Sunderland, which simply can't do anything right at the moment. Steve Bruce, formerly of Wigan, has been the master of the mid-season transfer or loan. He seems to have struck out with Sulley Muntari. Danny Welbeck is back giving some hope for the Black Cats who seem poised to go back to square one even if they avoid the drop. ... Sunderland 1, Wigan Athletic 0
* Chelsea v. West Ham United -- (Live, FSC, 12:30 p.m.) In August, almost everyone might have said Flourent Malouda was the front runner for the Player of the Year awards, as he carried his sterling play from the spring of 2010 into the new season. And then ... the Frenchman seemed to personify Chelsea's midseason funk. Malouda might be back to that early-season dangerman, as he's scored three in his last three Premier League games, doing his thing on the left wing. It seems like when Malouda and Soloman Kalou are on form, Chelsea are tough to beat, regarldess of whether its Didier Drogba or Fernando Torres in the middle, though when Carlo Ancelotti tries to play both strikes, it moves Malouda further from his dangerous position up the field. Not to start sounding like Werner Herzog and making bets about eating shoes, but I'd consider something that outrageous if West Ham went to Stamford Bridge and came away with a win. Consider it. ... Chelsea 4, West Ham 1
Sunday:
* Bolton v. Arsenal -- (Live, FSC, 11 a.m.) Is Bolton about to unravel? 5-0 in the FA Cup semifinal to Stoke City? That's pretty piss poor. But would you have have your team embarrassed in one 90 minute span, or on a weekly basis, which seems to be the case at Arsenal? Bolton can get some redemption for the FA Cup flameout by almost assuredly ending the Gunners hopes with a win at the Reebok Stadium. Arsenal? Not a lot left to say at this point. The Gunners, not too long ago, were known as the Invincibles. Now they Inevitables. Still think with Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott in form, Gunners extend their fans agony for another week. ... Bolton 1, Arsenal 2
Monday:
* Blackburn Rovers v. Manchester City -- In short, the lesson here, chicken bucks < oil bucks. ... Blackburn Rovers 1, Manchester City 3
Last round: 1-2
Season: 138-187
Labels: England, EPL, Prem Picks, Premier League, Soccer
Nice article, but check your facts. Chicharito was bought from Chivas de Guadalajara, not from Club America.
If Chelsea makes up 6 points via 2 United losses and two of their own wins, the existing 4 goal difference will at least go level just from those results (+2 Chelsea, -2 ManU). Less of an advantage than it would seem, though I guess some draws would make it more significant.